The massive $20 billion Akuyu nuclear power plant, built by Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom, perhaps best symbolizes the development of bilateral energy and economic ties that the two leaders have established during their two decades in power as presidents or prime ministers of their respective countries, the editorial office writes. Radio Free Europe on English.
Putin’s virtual participation in the grand ceremony may have been driven less by the need to demonstrate Moscow’s power abroad to the domestic public and more to support another authoritarian leader in trouble.
The April 27 event came less than three weeks before Turkey’s May 14 presidential election, which will be Erdogan’s toughest challenge at the polls. Amid deep economic problems, polls show him lagging behind Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP).
Putin also offered a barely concealed indication of the outcome he wants in the elections, which will have repercussions for Moscow, Kiev, Washington and Brussels.
“Building the first nuclear power plant in Turkey and creating a new, advanced, high-tech industry from scratch is another convincing example of how much you, President Erdoğan, are doing for your country, for the growth of its economy, for all Turkish citizens,” Putin said in a speech that was transmitted throughout Turkey.
“I want to say clearly: You are able to set ambitious goals and confidently go towards their realization.”
Putin’s flattery is the latest expression of his support for Erdogan, 69, whose authoritarian rule and anti-Western rhetoric have served Moscow’s interests by undermining NATO unity and undermining Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Last summer, Russia transferred billions of dollars to the Turkish subsidiary of Rosatom for future construction work well ahead of schedule, which experts say was intended to prop up Turkey’s troubled currency.
Putin’s investment in Erdoğan could collapse if Kilicdarolu, 74, a former bureaucrat who ran the state’s social security agency, wins the most votes in the election.
Kilicdarolu said he would seek to restore relations with Europe and the US that Erdoğan damaged with his political repression and interventions abroad, such as Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. His victory could, among other things, open the door to the rapid inclusion of Sweden in NATO, which Russia strongly opposes.
“A defeat for Erdogan would not be good for Putin,” said Mark Katz, a political science professor at George Mason University who focuses on Russia’s relations with the Middle East. “Putin will have little choice but to pander to Kilicdarolu if he wins. He will have to accept Kilicdarolu getting somewhat closer to the West in order to dissuade him from getting closer to him.”
Washington and Brussels were troubled by the rise of strongmen like Erdoğan and Putin at the turn of the century, while the pluralistic progress made in the decade after the fall of communism in Central and Eastern Europe was undermined.
An Erdogan defeat would show that democratic forces around the world are still “steady,” says Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and African studies at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations.
“It would be a blow to the kind of global, populist authoritarianism of which Putin is clearly the leader,” said Cook, who warns that Turkish democracy is still not out of trouble given the weakening of institutions under Erdogan.
‘Authoritarian Bromance’
Putin has met with Erdoğan probably more often than with any other foreign leader outside the former Soviet Union.
Since Erdoğan became prime minister in 2003, during Putin’s first term as president, the two have developed a good working relationship that some describe as a “bromance” – a portmanteau of the words bro (brother) and romance that suggests an intimate non-sexual relationship between the two men.
Putin and Erdogan have occasionally been at loggerheads – in 2015, Putin said an incident in which Turkish warplanes shot down a Russian military jet near the Syrian-Turkish border was a “stab in the back” – and they have also been on opposite sides on several key issues. foreign policy issues, above all the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Ankara continues to supply Kiev with deadly drones. But they are also linked by opposition to what they call a Western-dominated global order and a shared disdain for some of the values espoused in the West.
“Both see themselves as (leaders of) resentful great powers who don’t respect each other enough, and both hold grudges against the West. That’s where Erdoğan and Putin found each other,” Kac said. “Whatever differences there are between them, as long as Erdoğan is anti-Western, for Putin it is the main thing.”
Opinion polls give Kilicdarolu, who has the support of a diverse alliance of six parties, a slight lead over Erdoğan. If none of the four candidates receives more than 50 percent of the vote, the second round of voting will be held on May 28.
While serving as prime minister in the 2000s – the most powerful post in Turkey at the time – Erdoğan was very popular due to the booming economy. However, his appeal has waned as rising inflation and falling living standards in recent years have taken their toll on many voters.
Strained relations with the West
His standing in the West has also weakened as he has rolled back democracy, undermined media freedom, weakened government institutions such as courts and pursued what analysts call an “aggressive” independent foreign policy, including close ties to Putin, all of which have led to deeply strained relations with Washington and Brussels.
After a 2016 coup attempt blamed on a US-based cleric, Erdogan struck a deal with Putin to buy Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, prompting sanctions from the US defense industry.
The US has opposed the $2.5 billion deal, fearing the Russian system could allow Moscow to gather intelligence on the US F-35 fighter jet, which Turkey ordered and had a hand in developing.
Erdogan may have underestimated US willingness to impose defense sanctions and felt he could not simply abandon the S-400 without damaging his reputation, experts say.
In recent years, Erdoğan has also quarreled with members of the European Union. He clashed with France over Turkish intervention in Libya, and with Greece and Cyprus over energy deposits and maritime borders in the eastern Mediterranean.
Recently, Erdoğan slowed efforts by Sweden and Finland to join NATO after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, accusing the Nordic countries of harboring Kurdish “terrorist organizations.”
Turkey approved Finland’s NATO membership at the end of March, but continues to block Sweden’s entry.
Kilicdarolu promised to restore the rule of law in Turkey, return the country to a parliamentary form of government and resolve the S-400 issue with the US. Analysts expect him to quickly support Sweden’s NATO membership.
Russian invasion
For all the frustration he causes in the West, Erdoğan played a key role in the Moscow-Kiev agreement that allowed Ukraine to export grain across the Black Sea. Russia has blockaded Ukraine’s ports in an attempt to stifle its economy, which has also pushed up global grain prices.
An election defeat by Erdogan could raise questions about the long-term viability of the deal, Cook says. The deal expires just a few days after the May 14 election.
“It will be more difficult to maintain this grain deal because part of it is related to the Putin-Erdoğan relationship, and the measure of trust they have established with each other,” he said. “When we talk about powerful people, I think we tend to underestimate the chemistry in their personal relationships.”
Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Erdoğan has been walking a tightrope – he has called Moscow’s aggression “unacceptable” and is supplying Ukraine with deadly drones, but he continues to maintain relations with Moscow. Turkey is also a key channel for the import of western products under sanctions to Russia.
Even if Kilicdarolu wins, Turkey will continue to balance Ukrainian and Russian interests, including resistance to Western sanctions against Moscow, analysts say.
Part of the reason is the faltering economy and Turkey’s high dependence on Russian energy sources and investments. Its economy is burdened by the highest inflation in the last few decades, which makes it very sensitive to external shocks, such as a new jump in energy prices.
Turkey receives about 45 percent of the gas consumed in the country and significant amounts of oil and coal from Russia. Its nascent civilian nuclear industry also depends on Russia to supply its power plants with nuclear fuel.
Last year, Putin cut off energy flows to the EU as sweeping sanctions were imposed on Russia, causing prices to spike.
Due to the Western sanctions, Turkey has become an even more attractive destination for Russian tourists and companies, which bring the necessary money and investments, while trade between the two countries has increased since the punitive measures imposed on Moscow.
Without ‘honey and milk’
While Kilicdarolu will focus on Europe immediately after a possible election victory, he will not leave Putin waiting for long, says Asli Aydintasbas, associate at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
“Sooner or later he will turn to Putin (to say) that he does not plan to threaten Russia’s interest in Turkey. The key question is how Putin will respond,” she said.
Even if ties with Russia remain strong under Kilicdarolu, any progress in restoring the rule of law would still be crucial to repairing the now “dysfunctional” relationship with the US, Aydintasbas says.
“It’s something that would overnight remove some of the hindrances in bilateral relations,” she said. He adds, however, that some will remain, fueled by anti-American and anti-NATO sentiment in the country, which reduces the prospects for significant improvement in bilateral relations under the new leader in Ankara.
Cook from the Council on Foreign Affairs agrees. “I just don’t think there will be milk and honey in US-Turkey relations after the election, regardless of their outcome,” he said.
