The new wave of COVID does not kill the company expects the profit of this year to stand above 7 billion baht, the force sent the “Energy-Petro-Construction” group to recover at an accelerated pace. Low base benefit – Crude oil prices rose “Asia Plus” indicating a new wave of COVID hits the stock market less. Awaiting Progress of Vaccine “Finansia Syrus” Seeing 1,600 Point of Year-End Thai Stock Market Index
Mr. Chanchai Pantathanakit Investment Strategy Manager Asia Plus Securities (Securities Company) Company Limited disclosed “Prachachat Business” that the profit forecast for Thai listed companies (Company Limited) in 2021 will be 7.96 billion baht, 32% growth compared to the same period last year. Earning per share (EPS) of 70.2 baht, calculated from 170 registered companies, accounting for more than 80% of the market cap, including the market.
It is expected that the profitable segment will grow well as a sector in the cyclical equity segment. According to the economic recovery Energy stocks expect 83.4% earnings growth, petrochemicals 675%, banking stocks 17.5%, retail stocks 38.5% and construction sector 592%.
For energy, petrochemical and construction stocks The profit grew at 100% since last year the base was low and stock loss. Due to being affected by the COVID-19 outbreak But this year no Therefore there will be accelerated growth Along with positive factors following the rising crude oil price direction. While other groups of stocks grow in tandem with the economic cycle, GDP is expected to return to growth.
Covid wave 3 risks pressure on profits
However, the latest risk of pressure on the company’s earnings forecast is the situation of the COVID-3 outbreak in the country, if it is out of control and escalates until strict lock-down measures will affect profits But see that the correction of the Thai stock index at this time Not likely to drop as heavy as during the outbreak in Samut Sakhon Province, where the Thai stock index dropped 6.4%.
As there is progress on vaccines, 1 million doses of sinovac vaccine were imported in April and 6 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine were imported by June. Continued progress will draw investor confidence.
Mr. Chanchai continued that Although the number of COVID-infected people in the country set a new record in the thousands. But at first, I haven’t seen a downward adjustment yet. Because if viewed from the 2nd quarter of 2020, there is a more stringent lockdown measure There are 4 sectors in which the affected sectors have been flipped from profit to loss.
Namely media, tourism, hotel, automotive and air transport. Which accounts for only 4% of the total market profit margin Considered relatively little compared to large sectors such as energy and petrochemicals. Which contributes approximately 30% of the market
If looking at commodity prices Like the price of crude oil Since the start of the year, it has risen 30%, bringing the average Dubai crude oil price to nearly $ 60 per barrel. It is 50% higher than the hypothesis made by the $ 50. Will support profit or create an upside to add to the profit of listed companies approximately 10,000 million baht.
“The COVID outbreak poses a risk of impacting profits. But believe that overall estimates are still at the same level “
“Energy – Petrochemical – Electric” revives
Weerawat Wirojpoka, director of securities analyst at Finansia Syrus Co., Ltd., said this year the stock sector will have a strong rebound effect from the severe coronavirus last year. Ie energy, petrochemical and power plants, it is expected to return to positive after the previous year has almost exhausted losses
The energy sector profit will recover from 50 billion baht to 1.8 billion baht or grow more than 250%, while the petrochemical profit will grow 150% and the power plant group 50%.
The commercial banking sector earnings will turn a positive 16% while the tourism sector losses will decline. But not reaching the level of profitability And the food / retail sector will grow 22% and 20%, respectively, driven by continued government spending measures.
The profit forecast at the end of the year will be 7 hundred billion baht, a growth of 49% from the same period last year. Earnings per share of Bt78, calculated from 165 companies, accounting for 76.7% of the total market cap.
A new wave hits 1-2 months.
Mr. Weerawat said that The Research Department evaluates the Thai stock market index at the end of this year at 1,600 points P / E at 20 times, which Thai stock prices are still relatively high. Advise investors that If the index rises to 1,600 points, focus on gradually taking profit.
As for concerns about the COVID-3 outbreak, it is not clear how severe the outbreak will be. But estimates that the impact is unlikely to be different from the January 2021 period, where the state may have measures to control the point without locking down the entire country. Therefore likely to affect the short term 1-2 months
“In the past, the stock market expected the economy to recover from the opening of the country. But next, the market will expect the realities of the economy. From the second quarter onwards after the vaccination and foreign exposure Need to monitor whether the economy will recover as expected or not. Is a very important factor Including the direction of US inflation that rose in the second quarter onwards “
Company profits grow at least 40%.
Mr. Paiboon Nalin Tharangkun, Chairman of the Board of Directors The Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO) said it estimates that the profit of listed companies this year is likely to grow at least 40% due to the very low base last year, almost 40% negative, and the global economy better than expected. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global GDP growth to positive 6% from the previous 5.5% and the global vaccination forecast was faster.