Experts predict whether AOC will be emerging as President

This should be familiar: A progressive woman and an external political man in the world have been shocked by a powerful colleague, based in the New York-based Basic Democratic area. She is the youngest woman ever elected to Congress and gets a job on a powerful conference committee. Already well known, she gets a reputation for a republican corrupt president, at one point calling him as well as his administration for what she regards as a “seamless network of misconduct that is so serious that I leave for me. ”

But this is not the story of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. It is the story of Elizabeth Holtzman, a 30 year old lawyer who was elected to the Congress in 1972, just to sit on the House Judges Committee during Richard Nixon's resolute hearings. She proceeded to the Joint Committee on Women's Issues, promoted gender equality legislation, and criticized current military expenditure. By 1980, there was an adequate fault that she could get a promise from the Seanad – a real rising wing star.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez can be a illuminated rod for controversy and one of the most significant newcomers in Comhdháil Náisiúnta na Gaeilge in the years, but as Holtzman's story shows, nothing is ever new. While aspects of his story are unique, Ocasio-Cortez is not the first legislator to become a real interest in the night. And a brief summary of a long history of its political-wunderkind precursors can show us how his career could speed up or sputter, as some of his Democrats might expect.

She gained some presidential qualifications

Many people argued that Ocasio-Cortez does not taste more than one week that will radically change as political tastes change. However, most historians and political analysts VICE spoke about their career and noted that there are many examples of politicians who started as young, energetic people, polarizing new people and becoming president. . Nixon himself became anti-Communist brands when he became a controversial colleague in 1947. Bill Clinton was the “boy-governor” of Arkansas in the late 70s – although, as Nixon had, he went through election paths before His way to the White House. Barack Obama's path was finer, terminating from the Illinois Senate on the main job in half of the decade.

These comparisons may not be perfect – on one thing, it is not clear that Ocasio-Cortez puts presidential ambitions. (Although her team did not respond to a request for comment on this section, she has at least one view that she looks at presidential running.) But all these men, at least, show that it is a phenomenon. young political people are not seen to be famous for the national regime quickly.

“Watergate Babies” —Departments, some with much prior political experience, were elected in 1974 following Nixon's scandal – a close comparison with Ocasio-Cortez. As a group, Congress historian Julian Zelizer asked them “to be attractive in the media and willing to advance big ideas,” and they initiated themselves in extensive projects of transparency, accountability and government oversight. Gary Hart, the junior Colorado Senator, could be said to be their most famous name, seeking to push forward coherent ideas as major government programs to widen access to education, retrain workers, and helping minority groups and women to better access economic prosperity. All of these sounds familiar.


Avoiding scandal – and the Hubert Humphrey trap – will be crucial

Unlike Hart, Ocasio-Cortez did not succeed in making a strange scandal. Sometimes she wants to make screws – as she happened when she was discussing an interview with Israel and Palestine – but she also has a lack of knowledge about terrible hours. (As she recently did when she admitted she did not know what was garbage disposal.)

Even the ethical complaint filed against her and her campaign manager by a right wing group to put money into alleged abuse, was unsuccessful. However, as Martin Gurri's media analyst argued, even if no major career scandals come to an end, “the charges and reverse charges never end. The effect can die with a thousand cuts. ”

Even if Ocasio-Cortez remains free from scandal, history has shown us repeatedly that rising stars have to be very careful about how they try to promote the political ladder. A too fast candidate movement opens up that allegations that he is too greedy – especially women, specialist specialist in social media and political communication Shannon McGregor, who is considered their careers are far more ruthless than their professions. "That is a garbage, by the way," she said, "but it happens."

The problem is, none of the incremental upward steps could take up Ocasio-Cortez – a Senate seat or the New York or the moratorium is viable at any time soon. Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand are probably not going anywhere in the near future (unless Gillibrand's presidential offer comes with fire). It is likely that Governor Andrew Cuomo will also be looking for a fourth term and it would be as hard to cool him. (A multi-faceted Democratic Party, Cynthia Nixon, and all of them have tried.) The most attractive race to her, John Anack, the political and media affairs consultant, believes that the New York City Mayor's 2021 elections would be But may be predictable competitive.

And when politicians hit higher office insurgent, they often attract their images to appeal to wider electors, becoming part of the establishment in the process. Hubert Humphrey, Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson, can become an historic precedent for Ocasio-Cortez. Humphrey began as a “true truth and a bomb-mercy ower” that the system put in place, ”explained Zelizer. An academic and political radio reporter in Minnesota, Humphrey made his name in the 1940s by calling on the national Democratic Party to put civil rights legislation on its platform. He then made his way into the Senate in 1948, especially with a common alliance of farmers and trade union workers. In his existence, he became a keen competitor for the expansion of welfare, employee protections, and obscurity. But he lost his 1968 presidential offer against Nixon – partly because of that time that people felt he had left a pro-war lackey LBJ. He remained a significant political figure until he died ten years later, but without a bona fides progressive career previously. Certainly Ocasio-Cortez supporters do not want to fate her.

Holtzman was careful about his battles to choose. But when she passed to the Senate in 1980, she lost – in part because the Liberal Liberal Javits holder ran as a third party destruction, he split the biased vote. “She chose the best chance, probably,” said Celock, but even then, “defended her unscrupulous circumstances.” (She still had a good standard, serving as Brooklyn district attorney and the governor of New York City). Recently, she has been a commentator who focuses on comparing Trump's era with Watergate.

AOC has more than a politician: #influencer

Perhaps Ocasio-Cortez's main predecessor from his historical predecessors is the way she turns social media into political power – even though she is certainly not the first political figure to leverage new media. . “Television,” said political and strategic pollster John Zogby, said “Martin Luther King enabled the national outcome just as television news was coming into his own late in the 1950s. The same can be said as radio in the 1930s helped to create a racial demographic priest, Father Coughlin. "John F. Kennedy has pulled power from his masters on television, and Franklin D. Roosevelt from radio.

It is difficult to compare older figures that mastered other forms of media, but it is clear that Ocasio-Cortez used social media as effectively as anyone in the county. As Celock pointed out, she is now “one of two elected officials in America who can, with one tweet, change the entire discourse of the day.” The other is Donald Trump, who gives you an idea of ​​his stand.

So maybe she doesn't need the formal authority that comes with a Senate seat or a government house. “Its future will be determined by which it can influence its millions of followers,” said Gurri, “not because of its success in climbing the hierarchy of Washington, DC,”.

However, Gurri added, the reputation is digital and a change in social media norms or priorities could quickly erode that political power base. And no matter how much hip people have enabled the social media to reach people directly, Ocasio-Cortez would have much less political power if mainstream outlets stopped her coverage. The right now, Zogby insisted, that she is an avatar on media media memorandum about “the age of thousands of years, young women and young Hispanics all rolled into one,” and the general left and “Impatient with the young people's stasis of establishment”. . ”

She is also an American political historian Mark Jendrysik, prefers left-wing right-wing, and is highly promoted. If the press moves on to a more comprehensive incorporation of these stories, or a whole new story, it could quickly lose its independent political capital.

OK, so where does this leave us?

Some VICE analysts for this piece said that Ocasio-Cortez could now be the best occupation to stay as it is: a likely safe seat with political connections, building good legislative reputation t and it could be said that it is more stable for reputation and influence. “Many people start to expect it as a surprise to a boy or girl in the Conference,” said Jendrysik, “then settle down and I know that it can be a good career – that they can have a lot of impact and change a lot. just waiting in his seat in the House for a long time. ”

However, in order to do this, it must ensure that it meets the needs of its area; there are already murmurs, said Celock, that his team is not visible enough "in dealing with local concerns such as mail delivery, or being present in local community board meetings." Ironically, Kyle Kondik's political expert gave It was noted that the focus of politics was on the needs of the assemblies as a series of factors in which she argued for the former Conference of Congress Joseph Crowley.

And while Ocasio-Cortez can put herself a thought leader over a strict legislator, she is likely to have to get her name on some prestigious legislation, said Jendrysik, to promote her reputation through baseline expectations. least to achieve from their fans. This may be difficult: Fresh male representatives have difficulty always with big bills. Ocasio-Cortez has set herself on the side of the democratic establishment with which she has to make alliances to do anything worthwhile.

Too much compromise, Gurri gave warning, his most demanding supporters could alienate. Most were unable to encourage prompt action. There are already wars that the local Democrats and former members of their Democratic machine need to be able to run a key challenge against it soon.

While it is entirely possible that Ocasio-Cortez will find a way to effectively steer those political challenges and retaining its digital reputation. But it is worth remembering that it is a political neophyte that openly recognizes how its rise in significance and horror or bad courage is to make its job as a legislator. And all it takes is a slip that would interfere with acting and career progression.

As historian Gil Troy noted, proof of that political power, “agility and roots,” does not emerge over time. So Ocasio-Cortez may “in time, to wonderful times,” as Gurri put, “or plunge into the abyss and forget it” within months or years. “No one can say at this point.”

This article was originally on US VICE.

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