Source: China National Defense News
|On July 16, Afghan government forces took part in an operation against the Taliban in Juzjan Province|
Recently, after the US government announced an early withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, the situation in Afghanistan has undergone major changes. The Taliban and the Afghan government have negotiated and integrated, and foreign forces have accelerated the pace of disruption. In the future, as the struggle between all parties continues to intensify, the outlook for the situation in Afghanistan is worrying.
Combination of domestic talks
After the United States announced its early withdrawal, the confrontation and negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban “advanced on two fronts”, and the domestic situation fell into continuous turmoil.
On the one hand, the conflict maintains a relatively high intensity. A senior official of the Afghan government declared on July 15 that Afghan security forces had regained control of an important port bordering Pakistan in the south of the country, which was briefly occupied by the Taliban. The Afghan Ministry of Defense issued a statement on the 17th, stating that government forces have launched operations against the Taliban in Nangarhar, Ghazni, Balkh, Samangan and Kabul provinces, in addition to killing 284 Taliban fighters. In addition to the personnel, 205 people were injured and a batch of improvised explosive devices placed by Taliban fighters were dismantled.
On the other hand, the negotiations progressed with difficulty. According to foreign media reports, Abdullah, Chairman of the Afghan National Reconciliation High Commission, and Baradar, Director of the Taliban Political Office in Doha, respectively led the Afghan government and Taliban delegations to hold a new round of peace talks in Doha, the capital of Qatar. It is reported that the Afghan government and the Taliban reached an agreement during negotiations on the establishment of a 14-member committee composed of representatives from both sides. The responsibility of the committee is to determine the negotiation agenda, which includes a ceasefire and the release of prisoners of war.
Baradar told Al Jazeera before the start of the negotiations: “We are ready to participate in dialogue, consultations and negotiations. Our priority is to solve problems through dialogue.” According to Russian media, Taliban representatives said during the negotiations that the organization would announce a period of time. The three-month ceasefire requires the release of 7,000 detainees and the removal of the Taliban from the UN blacklist.
Accelerated entry of all parties
Based on relevant foreign media reports, recently, the United States has hurriedly withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan, and many countries have begun to increase their intervention in Afghan affairs.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov attended the “Central and South Asia: Challenges and Opportunities for Regional Connectivity” high-level international conference in Uzbekistan on July 16, said that the rapid deterioration of the situation in Afghanistan is due to the United States-led NATO’s haste from Afghanistan. Withdrawal, despite the efforts of the U.S. government to beautify this operation, everyone is well aware of the fact that the U.S. operation in Afghanistan failed. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov recently warned the United States not to deploy troops in Central Asian countries that were once Soviet Union countries after the United States withdraws its troops from Afghanistan.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Russia and Central Asian countries will hold a series of joint exercises near the border with Afghanistan in the near future. Russian military expert Vladislav Shurekin commented: “The current situation in Afghanistan is gradually getting out of control, and the regional threat is extremely urgent. Although we have established ties with the Taliban, we should make full preparations for military institutions, including the SCO. To deal with all threats from this direction.”
Shurekin believes that the main threat is not that the Taliban may invade Central Asian countries. He explained: “Groups that part ways with the Taliban are more dangerous. They may try to escape to Central Asian countries, occupy certain areas and turn them into their own bases. We must strengthen the exercise so that we can quickly deploy more to designated areas. Army.”
According to Turkish media reports, Turkish President Erdogan stated that he has reached an agreement with the United States that Turkey will take over and station at the airport in the Afghan capital Kabul after the U.S. forces withdraw. In this regard, the Afghan government expressed support for Turkey’s plan to take over the airport, believing that the presence of the Turkish army will help repel the Taliban. The Taliban stated that if Turkey fails to withdraw its troops on time, it will regard Turkey as an “occupier”. Some military experts believe that Turkey’s takeover of Kabul Airport is the first step in its intervention in Afghanistan. In the future, if Turkey uses this to control the gateway to and from Afghanistan, it will be able to exert a certain influence on the situation in Afghanistan.
According to Afghan media reports, India recently transported dozens of tons of weapons and ammunition to Afghanistan by transport plane. India claimed that this was in response to the Afghan government’s call to help Afghan government forces defeat the Taliban. In response, Taliban spokesman Suhail Shahin said that India welcomes India to continue its aid and reconstruction work in Afghanistan after the Taliban seizes power, but India should not provide any military support to the Afghan government forces.
British Secretary of Defense Wallace stated in an interview with the “Daily Telegraph” on July 13 that if the Taliban take over the Afghan government, Britain will cooperate with it. Wallace said: “No matter which party is in power, as long as it abides by certain international norms, the British government will contact it.” In an interview, Wallace said: “The Taliban urgently needs international recognition. They need funds to invest in national construction. If it has been positioned as a terrorist, the Taliban will not be able to achieve this goal.”
The prospect is confusing
This year marks the 20th anniversary of the outbreak of the war in Afghanistan. The longest-lasting war in the history of the United States has not only brought huge and prolonged consumption to the United States, but also brought serious disasters to the Afghan people. In general, the situation in Afghanistan has continued to tighten recently, and the intervention of external forces has intensified. The chief culprit is the US policy in Afghanistan. After the United States became the “hands-off”, the security situation in Afghanistan has faced more variables and the prospects for peace have become increasingly slim.
The political situation will continue to be turbulent. Some analysts believe that due to the loss of strong support from the US military, it will be difficult for the Afghan government forces to effectively resist the fierce Taliban offensive in the future, and the uncertainty of the military and political situation in Afghanistan has increased sharply.
Terrorism may “resurrect”. The US “Wall Street Journal” commented that the irresponsible withdrawal of the United States has caused the deterioration of the security situation in Afghanistan, and may make this country a hotbed of terrorism again. The extremist organization “Islamic State” and others may once again use it as a stronghold, which is a huge disaster for Afghanistan and neighboring countries.
External forces may “get together”. The U.S. withdrawal has left a huge “power vacuum” in Central Asia. In the next step, foreign forces such as Russia, the United Kingdom, and Turkey, as well as close neighbors such as India, may further increase their involvement. At the same time, the Biden administration will not sit back and watch Central Asia fall into the hands of others. In the future, it may take new measures to show strength in the surrounding areas of Afghanistan. Related trends deserve continuous attention.