LONDON (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his readiness to use nuclear weapons in a televised address to the nation on September 21. This raises a far more important question for the world: Is Mr Putin serious or just bluffing ?
Putin, of course, insists he is not brave. Meanwhile, Western politicians, diplomats and nuclear weapons experts are divided. But some say Putin could use small tactical nukes to avoid a military defeat, defend his presidency, intimidate the West or force Ukraine to surrender.
Putin referred to the more specific threat of the West using nuclear weapons against Russia. This could mean that Russia is considering worsening the situation after annexing four regions of Ukraine which it only partially occupies.
In fact, it has the world’s largest nuclear warhead, a new generation of hypersonic weapons, and ten times the West’s arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons. That is why the United States and other NATO member countries are taking Putin’s comments seriously.
In a speech on Wednesday, Putin said Russia would use “all available weapons” to defend its territory. “This is by no means a verbal threat, and those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the tide could turn and they might face the same fate,” he said.
Such blunt rhetoric is at odds with the far more subtle threatening signals sent by Soviet leaders since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.
US National Security Adviser Sullivan warned the Biden administration on Wednesday that Putin’s comments were “extremely serious” and that Russia’s use of nuclear weapons would have “catastrophic consequences”.
So far, the US government has not identified a specific response plan in case of an emergency. However, most experts believe that the use of nuclear weapons by the United States could lead to “nuclear escalation,” so the likelihood of a large-scale conventional attack on Russian military installations with conventional weapons is more.
CIA Director Byrnes said on CBS TV on the 27th when asked if Putin would go ahead with a nuclear attack, he said, “His threats have to be taken seriously.” The intelligence department added that it had no real evidence that Mr Putin would move. immediate use of tactical nuclear weapons.
If Putin does indeed order a nuclear attack on Ukraine, it will be the first time the US military has used atomic bombs since the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of the Pacific War.
It is theoretically possible to launch relatively short-range, low-yield nuclear weapons aimed at Ukrainian military targets from either land, sea, or air, but their effectiveness is debated among experts.
Another option for Mr Putin is to detonate a nuclear weapon somewhere in a remote no man’s land or at sea, just to scare.
Although the radiation damage from a small Russian tactical nuke would be limited to about a kilometer in circumference, the psychological and geopolitical consequences would be global.
“Putin is playing a game of chicken that has a lot of money against him,” said Richard K. Betts, professor of war and peace at Columbia University. “I don’t expect the US to use nuclear weapons at all, but those aren’t necessarily reasonable. odds.”
＜Irrational＞
At least two RC-135S “Cobra Ball” reconnaissance aircraft, tasked with observing ballistic missiles, were deployed on the 24th, showing that the US is paying close attention to Russia’s nuclear weapons tendencies, according to aircraft tracking data . .
Lawrence Friedman, emeritus professor of warfare at King’s College London, said there is currently no evidence that Russia is accelerating preparations for a nuclear strike, and that Washington will find out “fairly quickly” if it does.
Friedman said it would be wrong to play down Mr Putin’s warnings about nuclear weapons, but he did not think it made sense for Mr Putin to use nuclear weapons to defend his newly annexed territories. “At a time when Ukraine has made it clear that it will not stop fighting, it is important to break the taboo that has been in place since August 1945 for such a small acquisition, and even if the fighting ends, these territories will be It seems very strange to start a nuclear war, considering how difficult it is to settle into a peaceful state.”
He added that any irrational use of nuclear weapons in this situation would inevitably be an emotional act by Mr Putin, who felt threatened and desperate.
Betts of Columbia University also believes that the more favorable the situation is for Ukraine, the more likely it is that Putin will use nuclear weapons.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had previously paid little attention to the threat of a nuclear attack by Russia, warned on CBS television on the 25th that “until yesterday it was just a false threat, but now it can become a reality.” .
(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge and Andrew Osborn)
