[The Epoch Times, January 16, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Wu Minzhou, Taiwan Taipei reported) The total number of military aircrafts of the CCP’s military disturbing the airspace around Taiwan in 2021 will reach 961, an increase of 2.5 times compared with 380 in 2020. The threat to Taiwan is becoming more and more serious. . However, the former Communist military staff officer said that in fact, the Chinese military has a negative attitude towards attacking Taiwan, “because there is no chance of winning”, and it will pay a huge price, and may even trigger the crisis of the fall of the Communist regime.
On the 15th, the Fuhe Association held the “2022 Youth National Security Forum” at National Taiwan University. Several retired generals, military political commentators, and Communist Party research experts were invited to analyze the possible ways of the Communist army’s attack on Taiwan and how the national army should respond.
Yao Cheng, a former lieutenant colonel of the Communist Party of China who is currently in the United States, said through a pre-recorded video that, from the current situation, the Chinese Communist Party has not been able to conduct a comprehensive landing operation on the island of Taiwan. Taiwan is also opposed, “because there is no chance of winning”, the cost is too high, and it may even directly lead to the downfall of the Communist Party.
Whether Xi’s re-election is critical to the timing of the Communist Party’s attack on Taiwan
He said that the key now lies in the “Twenty National Congress” held at the end of the year. If Chinese President Xi Jinping believes that he has no hope of being re-elected, he may launch military forces to invade Taiwan, implement military control within China, and comprehensively supervise the opposition forces; Successful re-election, the CCP military leaders will automatically move closer. If the CCP military has another three or five years of military preparation, it is likely to use force against Taiwan in 2027, and the “21st National Congress” will not be held on the grounds of violating Taiwan. Automatic reappointment.
As for the possible mode of the communist army’s attack on Taiwan? Yao Cheng said that if the communist army wants to invade Taiwan, it must first fight “two battles”, one is to strengthen the military blockade against Taiwan, and the other is to seize the outer islands. He explained that since 2019, the Communist Army has been deploying to seize Dongsha. In addition to facilitating the entry and exit of warships into the Bashi Strait, more importantly, it wants to attract the U.S. military to fight an anti-access operation by capturing Dongsha, and to use the coastal strength of China’s coast for geographical advantage. As a result, it attempted to severely damage the US military and forced the US military to be near the sea.
He said, in addition, in order to prevent the intervention of Japan, the first peak of the United States, the CCP may also conduct an anti-access operation in the East China Sea, sending aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, and destroyers to push back the Japanese army, and even do not rule out the capture of Diaoyutai if necessary.
He further stated that if there is bound to be a war between the United States and China, the United States will want to be in the South China Sea, because the waters are wide and deep enough for large aircraft activities; while the CCP will want to be in the Taiwan Strait, because it is close to the shores of the Communist Army to build military power , has a geographical advantage. The location of Dongsha is just between the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, which is beneficial to the CCP.
Yao Cheng said that the CCP’s “14th Five-Year Plan” mentioned that the main roads to Taiwan, including highways and railways, will be opened in 2035. Currently, preparations are being made to build bridges between China and Kinmen and Matsu. Taiwan will definitely not. Agreed, but the CCP may unilaterally announce the withdrawal of the Golden Horses and gradually press on Taiwan by “cutting sausages”. It is estimated that the possibility of war is very high.
You may attack Penghu before hitting the island
He said that the most important outer island of Taiwan is Penghu. Before attacking the island, the CCP will first attack Penghu. The CCP has deployed 6 rocket units in Fujian with a maximum range of 480 kilometers. The 823 artillery battle that year.
He said that the United States has deployed heavy troops in the South China Sea, forcing the CCP’s defense line to retreat to the Xisha, while the CCP continues to threaten the Taiwan Strait.
Talking about the CCP’s threat to Taiwan, Yao Cheng said frankly that the CCP’s army is indeed much larger than the national army. There are 8 million registered reserve troops alone, and there are more than one million maritime militia along the coast. It is a huge threat, and if the CCP is given another 3-5 years of respite, they will make progress militarily.
Yao Cheng said that the CCP’s troops landing in Taiwan have 4 branches of the military. At present, the CCP has transferred the first commander of the Marine Corps, Kong Jun, to the Eastern Theater Command as the army commander. In terms of equipment, the 003 aircraft carrier will be launched this year, and 2 In addition, the mass-produced Yun-20 transport aircraft can also air drop medium and light equipment, including tanks and armored vehicles; while the 095 and 096 nuclear submarines are expected to be launched within 3 years, and the number of nuclear warheads will also double; In terms of the Air Force, it is estimated that 3 to 5 brigades of J-20 fighters will complete the construction within three years, and the total number will reach 300, which will have a great impact on Taiwan.
Taiwan’s greatest advantage is its democratic system
As for how Taiwan should respond to the CCP’s threat of force? Yao Cheng suggested that Taiwan should establish a very friendly relationship with democratic countries. Taiwan’s biggest advantage is its democratic system, which is recognized by the world. The Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese Communist Party also have concerns about this. In addition, in the face of the threat of force , Taiwan must have a firm determination to oppose the Communist Party, must unite as one, and all people must be soldiers.
He also reminded that Taiwan’s biggest crisis is likely to come from within, especially those with military power. If the CCP cooperates with the CCP and launches a coup, it will pose a challenge to Taiwan’s security. There is an atmosphere within Taiwan that the Communist Party likes.
Yao Cheng suggested that Taiwan should “attack the heart and mind” in the face of the CCP. In addition to adhering to the democratic system, it can also play a huge role in spreading the truth on the Internet. He took himself as an example. Many CCP officers secretly went over the wall to see him. After the filming, he fled to the United States.
99% of Chinese do not believe in the Communist Party
He emphasized that it is more effective to disintegrate the Communist army and instigate the anti-communist army than military equipment. Taiwanese people should not think that the Chinese people are all brainwashed by the Communist Party. I believe in the Communist Party, Taiwan can do a good job in the battle of heart and mind, and it is better than thousands of troops.
Responsible editor: Lu Meiqi#◇