“Fund flow” flows in. ADVANC pushes stocks to run for 5 days, almost 4%, breaks new target of 240 baht.

Reporters reported today (June 9, 2023) that the company’s stock price Advance Information Service Public Company Limited or INTRODUCTION As of 10:12 am, it was 218 baht, plus 1 baht or 0.46%, the highest at 218 baht, the lowest at 217 million baht with a trading value of 41.68 million baht.

ADVANC’s share price has increased for the fifth consecutive day since the share price closed at 210 baht on June 1, 2023, representing an increase of 8 baht or 3.80%.

Supachai Wattanawiteskul Mr analyst, securities firm Yuanta (Thailand) Co., Ltd. rose. ADVANC’s normalized profit forecast for 2023 and adjusted its fair value estimate at the end of 2023 to 240 baht per share from the original 235 baht, maintaining a “BUY” recommendation. EBITDA than the historical average in a three player market environment and intense competition Reflecting that the market is already very concerned about regulatory risks.

However, the normal profit forecast for the year 2023 has been increased by 8% and for the year 2024 by 9%, which the projection for 2023 is likely to increase from 1) price competition. Especially in the mobile phone market which fell faster than expected and 2) the deal of Triple T Broadband Public Company Limited or 3BB was delayed by a quarter, causing a negative impact on the short term financial statements in 2023. This will decrease because the loss statement will only be recognized in the second half of the year 2023 by modifying the assumption of loss recognition of 3BB from 9 months to only 6 months in 2023 and reducing the assumption of well-manageable depreciation when certain assets expire Including reducing the assumption of better-than-expected selling and administrative or SG&A expenses.

However, an increase in the 2023-2024 projection could increase regulatory pressure due to changes in government that could lead to changes in regulations. Causing the market to worry about the industry in the next phase, which is 1) the government will try to add new players in the industry, 2) the merger of 3BB and ADVANC may be delayed, and 3) post-merger company controls. ■ Ru Corporation Public Company Limited or TRUE formerly and Total Access Communication Public Company Limited or DTAC which could be more intensive. Specifically, managing the service provider’s average revenue per customer, or ARPU.

However, from the analysis of such concerns the chances of new players in the industry in the late cycle state were considered to be assessed as low. because new players have to invest a lot of the frequency spectrum and the network Even if the government helps, it is not easy either. This is because it takes many years for new players to become profitable. And it is unlikely that the government will support much with any private sector. The new government will probably have to look for other investments that are worth the time and money.

As for the merger with 3BB, it is currently being considered by the Broadcasting Commission Office. television business And the National Telecommunications Commission (NBTC), with the NBTC recently having a decision for the working group to do more focus groups, so it is estimated that the agreement will be more challenging to pass under the new government. But the chances of passing are still high.

Because if the deal doesn’t happen, ADVANC is negative in the long term, but ADVANC’s share price has already been exposed to such negative risks. Including potentially more intensive post-merger controls. which is another important method that has the opportunity to happen The main control is to track package prices that could affect customers. This may cause the group’s price increase to occur more slowly than the market expects. Such factors will make ADVANC less attractive. This is the main risk that must be monitored. In the short term, the competition trend in the 2nd quarter of 2023 is still gradually decreasing from the previous quarter.

side Refinement Consensus of 20 rating brokers INTRODUCTION Total expected revenue in 2023 at 197,490 million baht, net profit of 29,777 million baht and target price of 240.83 baht.


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