Ms Wilasinee Boonmasungsong, Director of Research, Globlex Securities (GBS), assesses the direction of the Thai stock market this week, which remains volatile. under pressure from Fed officials Urge to keep raising interest rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta recently released its GDPNow forecast model, showing that the US economy grew 4.4% in the fourth quarter, higher than the 4% previously released.
Including a drop in WTI oil prices to experience the lowest level since September 30 due to concerns about the demand for oil caused by the global economic slowdown. and the acceleration of the FED’s interest rate hike and China’s use of strict measures to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus after China reported deaths from COVID-19 This will affect oil demand, along with lower WTI crude oil prices, putting pressure on energy stocks.
And US data, which reported first-time claims for jobless benefits fell by 4,000 to 222,000, below analysts’ expectations of 225,000, suggesting tighter labor markets will further pace the Fed. The Fed raised rates by 0.75% at its December meeting. Increased from the previous survey, which was 15%, so the index frame is expected to continue moving at the level of 1,600-1,640 points.
However, domestic factors have a better direction. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Thailand’s real GDP in 2023 will grow by 3.7%, up from 2.8% in 2022, contrary to the global slowdown. And the APEC 2022 meeting in the past has boosted confidence in Thailand in terms of trade, investment and tourism. This will result in money coming into the Thai economy. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) said it sees a good sign for Thai tourism and expects tourism revenue to return to 80% of revenue in 2019.
Also at the end of November. It is expected that the state will prepare to propose measures to buy goods, returning to the cabinet meeting for consideration. To begin with, people will be allowed to bring expenses of purchasing goods and services of no more than 40,000 baht for tax deduction.
There will be factors to keep an eye on in the country, such as the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) reporting on fiscal economic conditions. regional economic conditions and regional economic future confidence index The Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) published the Industrial Production Index. The Ministry of Commerce reported the trade balance.
As for the situation abroad, the EU reported on the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector – the initial service sector in November. and the US reported weekly jobless claims. Durable goods orders in October
Therefore, recommend investment strategies, recommend stocks that are expected to benefit from stimulating domestic tourism. There will be a proposed measure, we travel together, stage 5 – measures to stimulate tourism. Go to the cabinet meeting to meet at the end of November. Stocks expected to benefit include ERW, CENTEL, VRANDA, ASAP, SPA, AAV, BA and AOT.
As for the direction of the investment in gold, Mr Nuttawut Wongyaowarak Globlek Securities research director estimated that gold prices rose from the October inflation rate coming out lower than expected at 7.7%, in line with the lower PPI producer side inflation index than expected by 0.2% led the market to expect that the last FOMC meeting of the year in mid-December had an 80% chance of a 0.5% rate hike and a 20% chance of a 0.75% rate hike, unlike the previous period .The market gave more weight to the interest rate at 0.75%, causing the market to be more relaxed, which is reflected by the US 10-year bond yield which weakened to 3.77%, in line with the dollar index which fell to a low of 105.34, supporting the prices of gold rallies, however, SPDR is 5.22 tons sold .
This week, keep an eye on the minutes of the FOMC meeting, with the market accepting an interest rate hike at 0.5%, raising the policy rate range to 4.25-4.50%. It can cause economic numbers to come out lower than expected and can be a boost to gold prices.
Therefore, the research department estimates that the pressure on gold prices is less. Because the outlook for most US economic numbers came out lower than expected. With gold having remained in the base for 3 months, there is a buyback, resulting in a trading range of $1,700-1,780/oz.
