Russia threatens Europe, but the world as a whole has become more insecure. How can Germany avoid old mistakes and arm itself against new dangers? That explains expert Ulrich Schlie.
At the latest since the Russian attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, German Russia policy has finally failed. Germany must face the threat. But not only this, warns Ulrich Schlie, one of the leading security experts. If the rivalries on the globe increase, forward-looking action is called for. In an interview, the historian explains what he considers necessary for this.
t-online: Professor Schlie, before Around a year ago, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the “turn of the era” in a speech in the Bundestag. How do you take stock today?
Ulrich Schlie: Olaf Scholz’s speech was a bang – without a doubt. The Federal Chancellor announced a change of tide in German security policy, launched the special fund for the Bundeswehr and, overall, made a security policy change of course in many respects. Another sheet says: How many of the announcements have already been implemented in reality?
The state of the Bundeswehr is in any case, it is still desolate, and the armed forces are barely able to fulfill their defense mission.
The “turning point” must begin in the mind, as Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht, who has since resigned, once remarked. And in that regard, something actually happened. The world in which we live is not only an extremely dangerous one, but it also has, in the form of Russia, an actor within the international community that is prepared to violate all rules of international law and to attack sovereign states. We in Germany had to learn this fact in a very painful way.
Ulrich Schlie, born in 1965, holds the Henry Kissinger Professorship for Security and Strategy Research at the Institute for Political Science and Sociology at the University of Bonn. Previously, the historian headed the planning staff of the Federal Ministry of Defense from 2005 to 2012 and was then political director himself.
But has this view actually become common knowledge? The resistance to changes that are too big sometimes seems immense.
The question is how sustainable this change is. It should be widely understood today that our increasingly changing world is characterized by strategic uncertainties. However, the question of how we want to formulate and enforce our national interests based on this assessment is a task that will keep us busy for the foreseeable future.
Wouldn’t it also be appropriate to carry out an in-depth analysis of the political decisions that have brought us into this predicament? On the day of the Russian attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Germany was almost defenseless militarily and was dependent on Russian drips for gas.
Each of the parties represented in the German Bundestag has its own history in relation to this topic. Admitting that you have made mistakes in the past is probably one of the most difficult things in politics. This applies not only to the currently governing SPD, but also to the now opposition Union parties. It would definitely be appropriate to set up a commission of inquiry that would work on the mistakes in Russia policy in recent years in a non-partisan way with the involvement of international expertise.
What were the key mistakes?
Germany had become extremely dependent on Russia for energy. Another reason why we were so little strategically prepared for emergencies was that the federal government had relied on the principle of “change through trade” with Moscow for too long. That was the main mistake. As is the illusion here and there that Germany could even pursue an independent Russia and China policy that would clearly differ from that of the United States of America.
Russia’s war against Ukraine clearly shows how dependent Europe is on the United States.
With a view to its defense options, Europe cannot weigh enough – also because the European Union has been divided for too long about what it actually wants politically.
Central and Eastern European NATO partners such as Poland and the Baltic States have repeatedly warned Germany about Russia for many years. Only nobody in Berlin really listened.
