Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index Shows Signs of Weak Recovery
August Index Rebounds, But Remains Low and Indicates Weak Global Economy
On the 6th of August, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for August. The index showed a rebound compared to the previous month, but it still remains at a low level, signifying a weak recovery trend in the global economy.
The global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for August recorded a figure of 48.3%, indicating an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Although it has shown a monthly increase for two consecutive months, the index is still hovering around 48%, underscoring the persistently low levels. The global economy is experiencing a weak recovery trend amidst a general tightening environment where the pressure of shrinking demand persists.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Science Research Association, stated that the consecutive monthly increase demonstrates a potential recovery in the global manufacturing industry. However, the overall upward momentum remains weak, and the development across different regions is unbalanced, leading to insufficient general momentum. Notably, weak demand presents a clear contradiction. In the current context of reshaping the global supply chain and the escalating complexity of great power dynamics, future success in world trade, investment, and sustainable manufacturing development heavily depend on deeper cooperation and further opening up.
The World Trade Organization recently published the Global Merchandise Trade Prosperity Index at 99.1, an improvement from the May figure of 95.6. This signifies a boost in global trade activities.
Examining the trend of new export orders in various countries, it is evident that China, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and other major economies have maintained low-level indices for new export orders throughout August.
Regarding the trade environment, occasional trade frictions, persisting geopolitical risks, inflationary pressures, financial market risks, and high debt risks contribute to uncertainty. Consequently, the global economy is anticipated to continue its trend of low growth.
Asia Sustains Steady Growth while the Americas Struggle to Recover
Zooming in on different regions, the manufacturing PMI in Asia continues to rise. However, the manufacturing PMI in the Americas and Africa remains below 50%, while Europe’s manufacturing PMIs continue to exhibit a weak downward trajectory.
The Asian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered 50.7% in August, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month and consecutive monthly growth for two successive months. This robust expansion highlights the continuous growth of the Asian manufacturing industry. Notably, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index has consistently risen for three consecutive months, reaffirming a positive recovery momentum. China’s manufacturing sector showcases a continuous and stable recovery trend, providing essential support for the steady growth of Asian industries.
Wang Jingwen, director of the Macro Research Center at China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, emphasized that China has been the primary driver of global growth in recent years. The recovery of the Chinese economy positively influences the global economy, particularly its neighboring economies. Moreover, China continues to expand its openness, exemplified by recent events such as the service trade fair and the introduction of 24 foreign investment regulations. These measures further open doors to foreign investment and have a significant impact on global imports.
On the other hand, the European manufacturing industry continues to exhibit weakness. In August, the European Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 44.7%, marking the thirteenth consecutive month below 50%. Similarly, the American Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index recorded 47.9% in August, indicating a modest increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The US manufacturing industry shows signs of a weak recovery, with manufacturing production activities resuming, but demand remains stagnant.
In August, the African Manufacturing PMI reached 49.4%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month. Although it ended two consecutive months of decline, it remains below 50%, implying that the decline in African manufacturing has slowed down but is still prevalent.
Xu Hongcai emphasized the positive signal sent by the Beijing Trade Fair in Services. Deepening cooperation in the Kinetic Energy service industry presents an opportunity to inject new energy into the manufacturing industry and boost economic development. By promoting inclusive and mutually beneficial development, the global economy can gain new impetus and vitality.
[责编：杨煜]
Today (6th) the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing published the global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for August. The changes in the index show that the global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index in August rebounded from the previous month, but is still at a low level, and the global economy is in a recovery trend weak
In August, the global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 48.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month It has risen month-on-month for two consecutive months, but the index is still at low of around 48%. The global economy is in a weak recovery trend and the general tightening The general environment has not changed, and the pressure of shrinking demand still exists.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Science Research Association: The month-on-month increase for two consecutive months shows that the global manufacturing industry has started to recover, but the overall upward momentum is is still weak, the development of different regions is not balanced, and the general momentum is insufficient. Weak demand is the current obvious contradiction. Especially in the context of the reshaping of the global supply chain and the increasingly complex game of great powers, the promotion of world trade, investment and the sustainable development of manufacturing in the future also depends on deepening cooperation and further opening up.
The World Trade Organization recently released the Global Merchandise Trade Prosperity Index at 99.1, an increase from 95.6 released in May, indicating that global trade activities have improved.
Judging from the trend of new export orders in different countries, the indices of new export orders of China, the United States, the European Union, Japan and other major countries remained at a low level in August.
From the point of view of the trade environment, trade friction still occurs from time to time, geopolitical risks still exist, inflationary pressures, financial market risks, debt risks and other uncertain factors are still high, and the global economy will continue the trend of low growth.
Asia continues to increase steadily while the Americas recover from weakness
In terms of regions, the manufacturing PMI in Asia continued to rise, the manufacturing PMI in the Americas and Africa remained below 50%, and the manufacturing PMIs in Europe continued their weak downward trend.
In August, the Asian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was 50.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and a month-on-month increase for two consecutive months, showing that the Asian manufacturing industry continues to grow constant From the perspective of major countries, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index has risen for three consecutive months, further reinforcing the positive recovery momentum, and China’s manufacturing industry has shown a continuous and stable recovery trend, providing important support for the steady growth of manufacturing Asian. industries.
Wang Jingwen, director of the Macro Research Center of China Minsheng Bank Research Institute: China has been the most important source of global growth over the years. The recovery of the Chinese economy is also conducive to driving the global economy, especially the neighboring economies. Second, we are constantly expanding opening, including the recent service trade fair and the 24 foreign investment regulations, which continue to open the door to foreign investment and have a certain driving effect on global imports.
In addition, the European manufacturing industry continued to perform weakly. In August, the European Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was 44.7%, which was below 50% for 13 consecutive months. In August, the American Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was 47.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, running below 50% for 10 consecutive months. According to data from major countries, the US manufacturing industry is showing signs of a weak recovery, and manufacturing production activities have resumed, but the demand side has not seen significant improvement.
In August, the African Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, ending two consecutive months of decline, but still below 50%, which n note that the decline in African manufacturing has slowed.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Science Research Association: In recent days, the Beijing Trade Fair in Services has also released a very positive signal. In the future, we can inject new energy into the manufacturing industry and economic development through deepen cooperation in the Kinetic Energy service industry, promote inclusive and mutually beneficial development, injecting new impetus and vitality into the world economy.
(CCTV reporter Wang Shantao)
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责编：杨煜 ]
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