The Chinese government could end its “zero-corona policy” before April next year, earlier than generally expected, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Towards a zero-corona policy that imposes restrictions seriousAs protests spread across China, a “chaotic” ending is possible, he said.
Goldman’s chief China economist Xianhui said in a report on Wednesday that he sees a 30% chance that Chinese authorities will reopen the economy in earnest before the second quarter of 2023. “The central government is likely to be forced to choose quick between strengthening the lockdown (city evacuation) and the further spread of the new coronavirus,” he said.
The worsening situation surrounding the coronavirus poses downside risks to Goldman Sachs’ fourth-quarter growth forecast for China, according to Mr. Goldman expects China’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 3% this year, slightly below the consensus forecast of 3.3% among economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Even if the resumption of full-scale economic activity could come sooner, the probability of ending the zero-corona policy in the April-June period remains the highest, at around 60%, said Sen .
news-rsf-original-reference paywall">Original title:Goldman Sees Chance of Early Uncontrolled Covid Zero Exit in China (抜粋）
