Asia Plus reveals profit of Co., Ltd. Q4/64 grows 50% compared to the same period last year. After handling Omicron well, we are confident that Q1/65 will continue to be good. In addition, the oil price can push the SET back to 1,700 points again. Recommend MINT – CENTEL – ERW – M – MAKRO is still a Laggard stock. The stock in March gives a frame of resistance 1,700 and 1,740 points, support 1,635 and 1,600 points. Choose to invest in medical stocks – debt management, while Ukraine – Russia problems, Finansia Securities assessed if the drag was long. Food-electronics stocks sank due to high income proportion in Europe.
stock analysis From Asia Plus Securities Company Limited (ASPS) revealed that the profits of listed companies in the period Q4/64, which the research department gathered up to 28 Feb. 65 from the reports, 543 companies or accounted for 95% of the Market Cap. Overall, it was found that the total net profit stood at 2.75 billion baht, a growth of 41% QoQ and 50% YoY from Q4/21, even though listed companies had to deal with the Covid Omicron crisis for the first time. But it can and can go through well.
For 2022, analysts have a more positive view on listed company earnings this year. from the direction of economic recovery more clearly It was also supported by the high average early-year oil price of $87 per barrel. Above the research hypothesis, $65 per barrel. Usually, every $5 in excess of the hypothetical price boosts listed companies’ profits around 1 baht per share.
Therefore, earnings of listed companies are expected to continue in Q1/22 (considering the high season of many industries), which is one of the supporting forces in the SET Index to rise above 1,700 again.
the subject matter The first round of talks between the Russian representatives and Ukraine ended. And there is an opportunity to negotiate in the second round in the next period Temporary relaxation of risky assets and the stock market And should benefit some stocks to have a chance to recover. After being pushed for a long time
Therefore, the research department So we searched that in Feb. 65, there were any stock groups that were still priced at Laggard, the market overview or the SET Index, which rose by +2.2%, found that there were groups that gave negative returns, namely PETRO -5.2%, AUTO. -3.8%, TOURISM -3.5%, CONS -1.4%, PROP -0.5% and only 0.1% of FOOD, etc.
However, in the aforementioned Laggard group, the research department sees that there are some stocks that have a chance to rebound quickly, namely the tourism sector, with 3 factors as follows: 1. Laggard prices, other groups and the market; 2. Negotiating Russia with Ukraine started off well. It has a positive effect on business in Europe. and travel stocks In normal conditions, Thailand has 3.7% of Russian tourists and 3. On March 1, this is the first day that the 2nd tourist COVID test from RT-PCR to ATK is another sign of relaxation. The travel stocks are still considered another group that is worth collecting during this period. Recommended MINT, CENTEL, ERW.
Trinity expects the SET in March to provide a resistance range of 1,700 and 1,740 points.
Mr. Nuttachat Mekmasin, Assistant Managing Director Securities Analysis Department Trinity Securities Co., Ltd. said it assessed the image of the Thai stock market in March 65, moving according to the development of four main factors, looking at the resistance frame of the index this month at 1,700 points and 1,740 points, of which 1,740 points are considered. is the maximum stretched level according to the Earning yield gap model calculation method. Look at the index’s interesting support levels for gaining weight at the levels of 1,635 and 1600, respectively.
Revealed 4 factors affecting Thai stocks this month
For the 4 big factors that will influence the Thai stock market are:
1. Conflict over geopolitics (Geopolitical risk) between Russia and Ukraine Assessing that as long as the aforementioned factors continue to prolong and drag on, it will indirectly be positive for the Thai stock market that will see fund inflows to take refuge in the short term. Seeing Fund flow flow back to countries that were heavily affected by the above factors, such as Europe and the US, etc.
2. Fed’s monetary policy In particular, the outcome of the FOMC meeting on March 15-16, if the Fed resolves to raise interest rates by only 0.25%, the stock market is expected to respond positively in the short term. Because it’s all in the price, but if the Fed decides to raise interest rates to 0.50% to stave off higher inflation. Estimated to be a negative surprise to the stock market in the short term. Through a sudden increase in bond yield, as at present, the price in the market is only 7%, however, the issue of a 0.50% interest rate hike will affect the stock market in a “hurt and end” manner, which is considered This can be good for the stock market in the medium term.
3. The development of the Thai economy This is partly based on the current Covid situation in the country, which continues to see high numbers of infections and deaths. Look at this issue when coupled with the declining force of government policies. and the overall product price level is high As a result, the purchasing power of the people will gradually decrease. This is not good for overall domestic consumption, in line with the current Mobility Index, which indicates that people are starting to live and have low economic activity outside the home again. including the latest BOT report that began to indicate signs of an economic slowdown This factor can directly affect the SET’s EPS in the next period. especially retail, banking and consumer discretionary groups, and there is a chance that it will ultimately affect the SET’s target level; and
4. Possibility that Russia may be removed from the MSCI Emerging Market Index (MSCI EM)which if actually happened This will show that Fund flow can flow into other EM countries, which Thailand is one of them. According to the latest Trinity calculations, it was found that If that happens The weight of Thai stocks in the MSCI EM index will move up from 1.85% to 1.89%, representing an inflow of around $140 million or 4.6 billion, based on investments based on the MSCI EM index around 3.5 lakh. million US dollars
For this month’s recommended stocks Continued focus from last month to Defensive with unique Alpha, suitable for Selective during times when the Index Valuation is in the high zone. and there is still uncertainty in the surrounding factors Namely, the Medical Group (Healthcare) and the Debt Management Group (AMC), in which the Healthcare group chooses BDMS, BCH, CHG, IMH and the AMC group chooses BAM, JMT, CHAYO.
Finansia opens a list of risky stocks amid long-standing Ukraine problems
The analysis from Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited said that the trend of Thai stocks at risk of being hit if the Russian-Ukrainian war is long And affect the economic growth in the euro zone to slow down. Although the delegations of both sides held direct talks on March 1 to resolve the conflict. A truce has yet to be reached, and a further round of talks will take place on the Belarusian-Polish border in the coming days.
The stocks with a high to low percentage of income in Europe are XO 80% NRF 30% TU 28% SAPPE 8% while the electronics sector is 65% DELTA 26% HANA 10-15%. The situation must be monitored continuously.
As for the investment strategy in March, the market is expected to be highly volatile, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine war. and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to start interest rates first. In the event that the war does not escalate, the SET Index will not fall out of the 1,660 key support level and there is a driving factor which is the recovery of the domestic economy. This is in line with the profits of listed companies that started to recover in Q4/21 and continued in the year 65.
However, from the uncertainty of foreign factors Therefore, we focus on investing in Value and Domestic Play by choosing Top Pick this month, namely BDMS CPALL – OSP – PJW – TOP.
