Coronavirus: epidemic may last for at least months

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“It’s not going to stop next week or next month,” Alessandro Vespignani, a professor at the Northeastern University, told AFP.

The’Epidemic of the new coronavirus that has appeared in China, 2019-nCoV, will cause tens of thousands of patients to die out and last several months at best, epidemiology experts estimate on the basis of the first available data.

“The best scenario would be that it continues in the spring, in the summer, and then it falls off,” said David Fisman, professor at the University of Toronto, and author of a newsletter for the International Society of Infectious Diseases.

“It’s not going to stop next week or next month,” Alessandro Vespignani, a professor at Northeastern University in the United States, who coordinates a group of researchers publishing real-time analyzes of the epidemic, told AFP. . “You don’t take the risk of saying it’s going to last a long time.”

Until this weekend, it was believed that the infected people were not contagious before the onset of symptoms (fever and breathing difficulties, pneumonia), but the Chinese authorities said Sunday to have established it, which the World Health Organization (WHO) has not yet confirmed.

The Americans, on the other hand, said on Monday that they had seen no evidence. If people without fever can infect others, it will necessarily change the dynamics of the epidemic.

The incubation period is only beginning to be estimated: around two weeks, or even shorter according to the WHO: between two and ten days.


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