(Original title: High pig prices support breeding profits to hit new high for the year in Q4 or there’s room for a flip)
Financial Associated Press, September 19 (Reporter Liu Jian and Wang Ping’an)Affected by the continued fluctuation of live pig prices, live pig breeding profits have reached the highest level of the year. Financial Associated Press reporters have learned from various interviews that the price of hogs is expected to be pushed up further in the peak live hog season in the second half of the year. Although there is pressure to increase the price of animal feed on the cost side, the impact is expected to be limited, and pig farming profits in the fourth quarter will remain at a high level.
Farming profits reached a new high for the year
Mysteel’s agricultural product statistics show that as of September 15, the average weekly profit of self-breeding and self-raising was 858.29 yuan per person; before 5.5 months, the purchased piglets made a profit of 947.81 yuan per head at the current pig price, and the profit level reached the average level in 2021.
(Self-propagating and self-sustaining profit chart Source: Shanghai Ganglian)
In a pig breeding exchange group where a reporter from the Financial Associated Press is stationed, most free range farmers believe that the breeding profit in a relatively high and reasonable range, and are satisfied with the data matching .
A relevant person from Wen’s (300498.SZ) also told the Financial Associated Press: “Currently, breeding profits are at a high level during the year.”
In general, the profits of backyard farmers are higher than those of large-scale pig enterprises. Wu Menglei, pig analyst at Shanghai Ganglian Agricultural Products Division, told the Financial Associated Press: “In terms of the profit difference between field farmers and group farms, the breeding costs of small and medium-sized field farmers. generally lower than group farm profits. The average profit of field accounts is higher than that of group farms.”
Breeding profits have reached their highest level of the year, mainly supported by the high pig price which has continued to strengthen since Q3. According to data from the China Pig Network, on September 19, the price of live pigs (outside three yuan) was 24.02 yuan / kg, a year-on-year increase of 91.24% and a month-on-month increase of 11.05%.
There is still a face to face in Q4
Looking ahead to the live pig market in C4, a relevant person from Wen’s Co, Ltd noted: “In general, the market in the second half of the year is better than the first half of the year. There are more holidays in the country. second half the year, and the weather will turn cold.”
“Individually, I am optimistic about the market in the fourth quarter, and the demand for pork is expected to be relatively large.” Wu Menglei said that this year’s New Year Festival is relatively early, and the corresponding pickles and enemas will also be higher by half a month. Although the epidemic has a certain impact, the rigid demand for the New Year is still there, so the price in October was relatively weak, and the market started to rise after November, reaching a second point high of the year in December.
Zeng Zihua, chief analyst of Zhuyi.com, also said: “Although the profit of live pig farming is currently at a high level, it may continue to rise in Q4, reaching a high point this year.”
It is worth noting that recently, due to the continuous increase in the price of animal feed raw materials, many animal feed companies have announced price increases, which has put a certain pressure on breeding profits.
However, in Wu Menglei’s opinion, the increase in the price of feed raw materials and finished products has a relatively limited impact on breeding profits, so there is no need to worry too much. On the one hand, the increase in the price of raw material costs is relatively controllable, and there is not much room for a continued increase in prices. It will continue to rise, and there is still room for growth in breeding profits during the year. “In my opinion, the profit of pig farming in the fourth quarter will remain at a high level, ranging from 800-1,000 yuan per head.”
However, the state has repeatedly proposed stable production and price protection and various control measures; at the same time, if the market consensus is too high, there may be central slaughter, slaughter, secondary finishing, and the provision of frozen products centrally, etc. Price movements bring some uncertainty.
Wu Menglei said that the increase in piglet births could lead to less supply at the end of the year. According to statistics, the month-to-month change in piglet births between June and July is about 2%-3%, and which will increase the supply growth expectation at the end of the year;9- The market break period in October (recession in demand and periodic lows) prompted the second wave of secondary fattening to enter the market in large numbers. that there is no shortage of pressure increase and intense killing and killing caused by the strong consistency of market opinion.
(Editor Liu Yan)