A loan information banner hung at the entrance of a bank in Seoul on the 2nd. News 1
As the financial authorities began tightening bank loans in earnest, the increase in household loans at major commercial banks fell by half last month.
However, the increase in mortgage loans, which account for about 90% of household loans, has soared, and credit loans are also evaluated to have no effect on loan regulation after offsetting one-off effects such as subscription for public offerings.
Household loans ‘dropped’ in half
According to the banking industry on the 2nd, the household loan balance of KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, and NH Nonghyup Banks stood at 698,814.9 billion won in August, an increase of 3.5 trillion won from the previous month. This is a decrease of 2.69 trillion won compared to the previous month’s increase of 6.20 trillion won, indicating that the growth rate of loans has slowed significantly.
In particular, the decline in credit loans was remarkable. The balance of credit loans in August stood at KRW 140,894.2 billion, an increase of only KRW 1.1 billion from the previous month. This is a very low level compared to the previous month’s increase of 1.86 trillion won. In the case of some banks, the balance of credit loans has actually decreased.
It is analyzed that the slowdown in loan growth is attributable to the application of the Total Debt Repayment Ratio (DSR) regulation for each borrower, which took effect in July, and the pressure from the financial authorities to reduce the limit on credit loans by banks. Since last month, financial authorities have been strongly demanding that commercial banks lower the credit limit to less than annual income.
Graphic = Reporter Song Jeong-geun
“Household loan regulation has more harm than good”
However, when looking at the increase in household loans in August, there is also an analysis that the effect of the regulation was not significant. This is because the increase in the balance of main loans, which accounts for about 90% of household loans, has risen even more. The balance in August (493,414.8 billion won) increased by 3.83 trillion won compared to the previous month, which is the largest monthly increase this year.
Some analysts say that the effect of the loan regulation was not significant considering the base effect for credit loans, which increased by more than 1 trillion won. In July, large-scale public offerings such as Kakao Bank were flooded, resulting in a significant increase in the balance of credit loans.
Rather, it is criticized that commercial banks tightened their money lines, creating the side effect of exploding the demand for loans. In fact, the number of new negative bankbooks issued on August 16-31, when the fear of a loan cliff became visible due to the suspension of loans from Nonghyup Bank, was 24,491, nearly double the number from the 1st-15th.
In a situation where the rise in real estate prices raises the demand for loans, it is pointed out that it is difficult to stop the increase in household debt by ‘tightening the money line’ of the financial sector. Seo Young-soo, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, “The root of the problem is speculative loans and excessive consumption and unnecessary loans. did.
However, there are opinions that it is still too early for the effect of household loan management to appear. This is because some banks did not start reducing household loans until the end of August, and most banks will start in earnest from next month. In addition, if the monetary policy effect of the Bank of Korea’s rate hike is reflected, the policy effects may not appear until October at the earliest. Kim Sang-bong, a professor of economics at Hansung University, predicted, “It is not yet in an atmosphere where borrowers are feeling the effects of this prudential and monetary policy, but the policy effects will appear as time goes by.”
Kim Jeong-hyun reporter virtu@hankookilbo.com
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