from the situation between China and Taiwan The most stressful in 40 years, causing the United States to keep a close eye on the latest, US foreign policy and defense experts. hypothesized that if China really invaded Taiwan, how would the US be able to respond to this?
Foreign policy and defense experts say that if China seizes one of the islands of Taiwan, the United States will have few good options to retaliate. without the risk of escalating violence and risking a war between superpowers
New Center for American Security Let’s make a hypothesis situations that may arise ‘What if China seizes Taiwan,’ said that it would start with China’s use of military force to control Tong Sha. It is a small coral island in the South China Sea between Taiwan and Hong Kong. which has about 500 Taiwanese soldiers stationed
Even if it was a bit of an invasion But it could also be the starting point for seizing other islands near Taiwan or seizing Taiwan. This will be a test of how committed the United States is to protecting Taiwan.
The center thinks that if China builds its own military footprint on Tongsha And with the expulsion of the Taiwanese troops out, the United States has no way to force China to return the island. to return to the control of Taiwan anymore.
🔴 If so, how will the US have a solution?
Analysts see Economic sanctions took a long time to take effect. and looks like a weak choice until almost no influence on China’s decision-making as has happened in the past But if the military There is a risk of war. which both the United States With Taiwan, they don’t want that to happen.
🔴 Then what is the way the US should do it?
Report from the New American Security Center. He stressed the need for multilateral cooperation, saying the United States, Taiwan, Japan and other countries must try to deter aggression. or the gradual coercion from China against Taiwan And cooperation with Japan is critical to an effective deterrent against China.
David Cohen, deputy director of the CIA, said China’s plans for Taiwan It is an issue that the US government pays attention to and is the number one problem. For the CIA’s China Mission Center, a newly created agency to focus on collecting and analyzing intelligence on China in particular
However, CIA officials have seen no indication that China is preparing a military invasion. as evaluated
🔴 Crimea model
Analysts at the China Mission Center are now trying to “understand exactly how Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is the main decision-maker on the issue, said: What do you think of Taiwan? to give the US government an “indicator” for a possible invasion. so best practices can be formulated.
Currently, the Center considers President Xi’s decision on Taiwan It is probably related to the stance from the Communist Party of China and the comparison of strength between the Chinese and the US military.
Meanwhile, former CIA deputy director Mark Kelton said it was unlikely the Chinese military would suddenly occupy Taiwan. But China is more likely to follow the model Russia used to annex Crimea in 2014.
That is, a slow, secretive revolution at first, followed by a more overt military movement. It is possible that China may coordinate with Russia. to create more trouble for the US
🔴 Taiwan is going to be tested’
Norm Rul, a former national intelligence manager for Iran, said people should question the China-Taiwan issue. ‘If you don’t stand for Afghanistan Will you stand up for other countries?’
He said China intends to test the US solution. a few weeks ago China has sent a record number of fighter jets to the Taiwan Air Defense Zone (ADIZ), despite not violating Taiwan’s airspace. which extends 12 nautical miles from the coast rather, it sends a clear signal about China’s intentions.
Mark Kelton, the CIA’s deputy director of intelligence, said daily entry into air defense zones around Taiwan had been “a lot of work”. It clearly signals China and tests Western solutions.
🔴 The United States has flipped its tongue on Taiwan.
Last week, US President Joe Biden announced that the United States would join forces to defend Taiwan if China carried out an attack on the island. It created serious confusion over the policies of the Biden Working Group. that had just been identified at the beginning of October. After a telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, he reiterated that the United States adheres to and adheres to the “one China” principle.
As the White House tried to clarify Biden’s comments, “Did not announce any changes to our policies. and our policy has not changed.”
Recently, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken Issued a statement yesterday (October 26) calling on Taiwan to take a greater role and participation in the United Nations (UN), and call on the international community to help push Taiwan.
An editorial on Oct. 27 for China’s state-run Global Times newspaper promptly responded to a call by the US secretary of state, accusing it of “opening a new front” against China on the Taiwan issue. And it is considered a policy change of the United States. with Taiwan and China, saying that China will not back down “One step” and most UN members will not listen to US demands.
many years ago China is accused use economic influence existing over many UN member states, forcing them to hinder taiwan Not to attend UN summits or to meetings of international organizations, including from participating in new initiatives.
However, Blinken did not make any such accusations and did not mention China in the latest statement. but clearly stated Taiwan has been disrupted several times recently. in trying to get involved in the activities of the UN and international organizations.
Blinken also confirmed that the United States’ long-held “one China” policy still unchanged The one-China policy means that the United States certifying China’s sovereignty over Taiwan
Taiwan previously occupied the UN as the official representative of China. But it was voted out of representation in the UN on October 25, 1971, and changed to regard mainland China as the only official representative of China in the UN.
However, CNN reported that the US provided Taiwan’s defense weapons. but still deliberately expressed ambiguity about military intervention. In the event of the Chinese attack? Because under the “One China” policy, the US accepts China’s claim for sovereignty over Taiwan.