Yongfeng Gold (2890-TW) held a seminar on today (12). Chief economist Huang Yinji stated that the economic growth rate (GDP) for this year (2021) will decline quarter by quarter. As for Taiwan stocks, the shipping stocks plummeted. Later, the main force retreated. It is expected that the low point of the market will see around 16,500 points. It is recommended that investors now “increasing cash positions and waiting for attractive prices.”
Huang Yinji said that the Department of Accounting and Statistics announced a GDP estimate of 8.92% in the first quarter, 7.47% in the second quarter, 3.4% in the third quarter, and 3.16% in the fourth quarter.
Huang Yinji further pointed out that just after the East Olympics, my country won 12 medals and defeated more than 200 countries. Coincidentally, Taiwan’s GDP reached 3.11% last year, estimated at 5.74% this year, and grew by 8.8% in two years, which also defeated more than 200 countries. , Which shows that Taiwan’s economy is still good; although the base period of this year has advanced, the economic growth rate next year may be lower than this year, but it is still expected to increase quarter by quarter and gradually improve. It is estimated that next year’s GDP will be 3.5-4.5%.
As for Taiwan stocks after rising to 18034 points on 7/15, Huang Yinji said that this trend is mainly due to the correction of rising after the shipping plummet. In addition to the seasonal decline in the economy, it is expected that the low point of the market will be around 16,500 points. At present, it has fallen from Wanba to 17,200 points and has only fallen by half. It is recommended to “increase cash positions and wait for attractive prices.”
Huang Yinji said that even if the fundamentals are dazzling, because the main force retreats, it is not suitable to look at the fundamentals in the short-term. Taiwan stocks stop decline indicator guards the country’s Shenshan TSMC. If TSMC falls below 540 yuan, it will see the buying point.
Huang Yinji further stated that this does not mean that the high point of Taiwan stocks has passed. As the economy will rise quarter by quarter next year, after the correction of Taiwan stocks, there will be opportunities for Taiwan stocks to regain their highs again in the fourth quarter and before the Spring Festival next year. Estimated 15 times, the market high will reach 18,200 points.
