Original title: Huatai Futures Copper Daily 20210525: Fundamental changes are limited, copper prices temporarily volatile
In terms of spot: According to SMM, in terms of spot, there was a further correction in the morning market yesterday. Buyers and sellers in the market were proactive, and overall trading was acceptable. In the morning market, flat water copper began to be quoted at a discount of 140 yuan/ton. The market enquiry was positive, and the willingness to replenish the goods was strong. A small discount of 150 yuan/ton was immediately after the market entered the market. The sentiment of the goods has moderated, the premium and discount rose slightly to a discount of 130 yuan/ton, and the transaction has slowed down compared with the early market buying interest. Good copper and wet-process copper have limited supply outflow under the condition of continuous import losses. The overall quotation has become firmer, and the price difference with flat water copper is nearly 100 yuan/ton. Good copper has basically stabilized at a discount of 40-30 yuan/ton. Some brands For example, ENM can hear a discount of 50 yuan/ton for the source. Under the guidance of PSR, ISA and other brands, the quotation has stabilized at a discount of 200-180 yuan/ton. Downstream inquiries have increased, and the holders have not seen further discounts. water.
Opinion: The fluctuation of copper price was relatively limited yesterday, and showed a slight rebound while the US dollar remained weak. At present, from a fundamental point of view, the expected peak season de-stocking of copper varieties does not seem to have been fulfilled. On the other hand, although the current TC price has rebounded slightly, it is still at a low level. In terms of profit, there will be a major suppression, so the current fundamental situation is relatively neutral. Last week, there was a document in China that it would pay close attention to the soaring prices of industrial products, so the non-ferrous metal sector will also be affected. Therefore, it is recommended that the current copper price be treated with a relatively neutral attitude for the time being.
In the medium and long term, macroeconomically, there is a high probability that global central banks will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the US dollar is expected to remain weak. In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences on the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still hard to say that it is ample. On the demand side, China is currently facing the new crown epidemic. The control of copper prices is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to drive copper demand, and the next peak season to go to warehouses will likely form a strong support for copper prices. We temporarily maintain the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices, but if 2 The destocking in the quarter is less than expected, and the increase in copper prices may be weaker than previously expected.
1. Unilateral: Neutral 2. Cross-market: Suspend 3. Spread: Suspend; 4. Options: Sell puts
1. The Fed’s monetary policy orientation 2. The trend of the U.S. dollar index 3. Whether the demand in the second quarter can meet expectations 4. Policy risks are intensified
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