[이데일리 권소현 유준하 기자] “Mondays are scary. I would like to believe that the omicron fear is a conspiracy theory designed to bring down stock prices. ”
Domestic investors who watched the New York Stock Exchange dyed blue due to the emergence of a powerful new mutant virus of Corona 19 had trouble sleeping on the weekend. Investor sentiment has already been frozen due to the surge in the number of domestic corona19 confirmed cases, but the new mutation ‘Omicron’ is also a bad news. There are concerns that a panic cell may occur if countries around the world begin lockdown again and supply chain bottlenecks intensify again.
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According to Marketpoint on the 28th, on the 26th (local time), all three major New York indices in the United States plunged more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plunged 13% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield pushed back to 1.48%, showing extreme risk aversion. The Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the Wall Street Fear Index, jumped 54.04%.
What stock market experts are paying attention to is that the global economy, which had been recovering due to ‘with Corona’, could contract again. While the World Health Organization (WHO) designated Omicron as a ‘variant of concern’ in that it can significantly reduce the efficacy of existing vaccines and have strong transmission power, the United States, Canada, and Europe, etc. locked the
Avery Shenfield, CIBC Capital Markets Economist, said, “There are fears from the rapid spread and incapacity of vaccines related to Omicron, but we need to see how it will affect the outlook for the economy. “It will take more time for the decline and inflation to normalize,” he said.
It is analyzed that the domestic stock market investor sentiment will inevitably shrink further as there are high concerns that the economy or corporate profits are already passing the peak, and the Omicron exploded.
Kim Young-ik, a professor at Sogang University’s Graduate School of Economics, said, “Korea’s exports have increased a lot this year, mainly in developed countries, thanks to the vaccine effect. As much as it looks like it can do it, the KOSPI could be pushed back to the 2550 level next year,” he predicted.
Seo Sang-young, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, also said, “We should keep an eye on whether the expansion to Southeast Asia and China is going to be, because it can affect supply chain issues.” “He said.
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However, there are forecasts that it will only be a short-term uneasiness in that the spread of Omicron will inevitably delay the timing of the Fed’s rate hike. In fact, the probability of a Fed rate hike in June next year, reflected in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) interest rate futures market, fell to 62.3% on the 26th (local time), down from 82.11% the previous trading day.
Learning effects may also play a role. According to Hana Financial Investment, the KOSPI fell 7% from its peak in September last year, when the COVID-19 mutant virus first appeared in the UK, and fell 6% in October when the mutation occurred in India. There was little impact in December, when another mutation occurred in Brazil. Lee Jae-man, a researcher at Hana Financial Investment, explained, “The negative impact on the stock market is weakening due to the learning effect.”
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