Original title: In 2020, my country’s foreign exchange market will operate smoothly and the international balance of payments will be basically balanced
“In 2020, the Foreign Exchange Administration will resolutely implement the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, do its best to do a good job in the’six stability’ and’six guarantees’, give more prominence to serving the real economy, promote reform and opening up, prevent and resolve risks, and effectively maintain the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market , Maintaining a basic balance of international payments.” Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on January 22.
According to Wang Chunying’s introduction, from the bank’s foreign exchange settlement and sales data, in 2020, in U.S. dollars, bank settlements were US$20493 billion, foreign exchange sales were US$1.8905 billion, and a surplus of foreign exchange settlements and sales was US$158.7 billion; in RMB, bank settlements were 14.1 trillion yuan. Foreign exchange sales were 13.0 trillion yuan, with a surplus of 1.0783 billion yuan. According to the data of foreign-related receipts and payments of banks on behalf of clients, in US dollars, the foreign-related income of banks on behalf of clients was US$44124 billion, external payments were US$4295.5 billion, and the surplus of foreign-related receipts and payments was US$116.9 billion; in RMB, the foreign-related income of banks on behalf of clients was 30.3 trillion yuan. , Foreign payments were 29.6 trillion yuan, and foreign-related receipts and payments had a surplus of 784.6 billion yuan.
“Under the complex environment last year, my country’s foreign exchange market can still operate smoothly, which is not easy.” Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC Securities, told a reporter from the Securities Daily. From the perspective of the balance of payments, my country’s current account last year The surplus was maintained within a reasonable equilibrium range; the non-reserve nature of the financial account deficit played a role in balancing the current account surplus; the international balance of payments achieved overall balance, and the overall monthly foreign exchange reserves fluctuated little and rose steadily. In terms of the RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 2020 will generally depreciate and then rise. Relatively speaking, the RMB exchange rate has relatively little fluctuations and remains relatively stable. The CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index, which reflects the exchange rate of the RMB against a basket of currencies, last year basically continued the two-way fluctuation pattern since 2017, and the fluctuation range is basically the same as in 2019, showing that the RMB exchange rate against a basket of currencies has maintained steady operation.
In an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily, Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that the stable operation of my country’s foreign exchange market last year revealed that the overall development of my country’s economy has stabilized and improved, especially the stable performance of my country compared with major economies. .
Wang Chunying said at the above-mentioned press conference that, on the whole, a more resilient and mature foreign exchange market has gradually formed. In the future, the foreign exchange market will further consolidate and present the characteristics of overall balance and two-way fluctuations.
In this regard, Dong Zhongyun believes that from the perspective of my country’s current economic situation and future development trends, the foreign exchange market has the foundation for achieving long-term stable operation. This year, there is a high probability that my country’s economic recovery will continue and resonate with the global recovery, and the external environment will gradually improve. At the same time, my country is continuously accelerating the pace of deepening reform and opening up, and is focusing on building a new development pattern with domestic and international double cycles as the main body. This will continue to strengthen the resilience of my country’s economy and help maintain a balance of international payments. Provide a solid foundation for the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market.
Regarding the key work of the foreign exchange bureau this year, Wang Chunying said at the above-mentioned press conference that first, continue to promote the two-way opening of capital accounts. Second, expand the pilot program for facilitation of trade foreign exchange receipts and payments. Third, support regional opening and innovation and the construction of special regions. Fourth, build an open and diversified foreign exchange market with sound functions, and support financial institutions to launch more foreign exchange derivatives that meet the needs of the foreign exchange market.
Talking about how much effort is needed to ensure the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market in the future? Dong Zhongyun believes that, on the one hand, the withdrawal of stimulus policies must grasp the intensity and pace to maintain a positive economic situation. A long-term stable economy will basically form strong support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate. On the other hand, the “14th Five-Year Plan” proposes to “persist in opening up to the outside world in a wider range, in a wider area, and at a deeper level” and “build a new system for a higher level of open economy.” This shows that my country will firmly embrace globalization, and the two-way flow of cross-border funds will become more convenient in the future. This puts forward higher requirements on my country’s foreign exchange management capabilities. It should be based on the application of big data to continuously improve the level of market monitoring and strengthen risk management. Identify and give early warning, and improve the management during and after the event to enhance the effectiveness of supervision.
In Liu Xiangdong’s view, as my country’s pace of opening up to the outside world accelerates, it means that the risk of RMB exchange rate fluctuations will increase. Promoting two-way volatility means avoiding one-way arbitrage and guiding the effectiveness and stability of exchange rate fluctuations. The next step is to ensure exchange rate stability. It is necessary to improve the level of supervision and reduce the operating cost risks of foreign trade and foreign-funded enterprises.Return to Sohu to see more
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