The precedent for the forced annexation of Crimea in 2014 draws attention again as Russia pushes for annexation referendums in four occupied territories in Ukraine.
Analysts say the current state of the Russian side, which is pushing ahead with a referendum despite criticism from Ukraine, the United States, and Europe, is almost the same as when Crimea was annexed eight years ago.
According to the New York Times (NYT) on the 20th (local time), Russia held a referendum on whether Russia should annex Crimea in 2014 as well.
The vote was overwhelmingly in favor (96.6%).
This result was possible because there was a high proportion of pro-Russian residents in Crimea.
However, at the time, not only Ukraine, but also the United States and European countries opposed the voting results.
They argued that the vote itself was against the Ukrainian constitution and had no value.
According to the Constitution of Ukraine, a referendum on territorial change must be held not only for the region but also for all citizens of Ukraine.
In fact, it was true that there was a high public opinion on the annexation of Crimea, which was pro-Russian at the time, but only about 30% of the whole of Ukraine supported the annexation.
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin ignored criticism from the international community and pushed ahead with the merger.
The unification was completed quickly in about 20 days, even using the Russian troops sent to Crimea before and after the vote.
The West responded by imposing harsh sanctions on Russia, but it did not stop the annexation.
The New York Times predicted that the same regime as in Crimea in the past could take place in the four provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporiza and Kherson, where referendums on annexation will be held on the 23rd and 27th of the month this.
No matter how much the international community criticizes Russia for not recognizing the results of the referendum, it is very likely that President Putin will try to force annexation based on the results of the referendum.
In particular, the New York Times analyzed that President Putin was unable to postpone the decision on annexation as the pace of counter-attacks grew faster and faster, especially when the Ukrainian army recently recovered not only Kherson in the north- east but also part of Luhansk, which is completely occupied by Russia.
In particular, President Putin appears to be facing some diplomatic difficulties, acknowledging that China and India have expressed ‘concerns’ about the war in Ukraine at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan.
“If Russia annexes parts of Ukraine, it could send a message to the world that it is ready to defend the region as mainland Russia, even if it is not recognized by the international community,” said the New York Times. he analyzed.
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