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“Last night, in Kabul, the longest war in American history-the 20-year war in Afghanistan ended.” President Biden said in the beginning of his televised speech on the end of the war in Afghanistan.
Biden has no way to declare the success or failure of this war. He just keeps emphasizing that it was he and not the previous presidents who “successfully” ended the war. The failure of the war seems to be a self-evident conclusion, and the focus has become whether this protracted overseas war can be ended. The U.S. transport plane took off from Kabul Airport, one minute earlier than the scheduled time. This is the last decent point Biden won for this withdrawal.
The reason why Biden decisively ends this war is because this war has plunged the United States into chaos and has difficulty keeping up with the ever-changing world. During the long overseas wars, the US’s strategic focus has lost focus, even running counter to the world. There is almost no decent way to end the war in Afghanistan. In the end, Biden used tactical shame to correct the strategic direction of the United States. In the past 20 years, the United States has “bred” a strategic defeat with a tactical victory in Afghanistan. This cannot but be said to be a trap of great powers’ grand strategy.
1. The war in Afghanistan was defeated, but withdrawing troops was a victory
Biden gave a televised speech as soon as the U.S. military completed its retreat, putting an end to the 20-year war. Throughout the story, Biden wanted to prove to the Americans that his withdrawal was a huge victory. In 17 days, 120,000 people were withdrawn, 98% of Americans withdrew, and so on. In fact, Biden can defend himself with just one sentence. Throughout the history of the world, especially the history of American wars abroad, there is no decent way to end a war that has already failed, and there is no face-saving way to get out of the quagmire of war. Kissinger has experienced the “fall of Saigon”. He has only recently expressed his opinion on why the United States retreated to Kabul. Even if Kissinger replaces Brinken, he may not necessarily prevent the United States from “falling Kabul.”
The ability and efficiency of the United States to withdraw troops has been proven by facts, but this tactical result is the result of a strategic defeat. Biden gave the predecessor Trump and the Afghan government the hurried withdrawal of troops. Trump contacted and negotiated with the Taliban and signed an agreement, which stipulates that the U.S. military will withdraw on May 1 this year. Biden said that as soon as he took office, he was faced with the choice of whether to withdraw troops or not. In other words, Trump caused the situation now. In addition, what irritated Biden even more was that Afghan President Ghani’s “Thirty-Six Strategies is the best policy” and fled without resistance. The Afghan government forces, which the United States spent heavily on training, surrendered with almost no resistance. This made the withdrawal plan formulated by Biden and his team held dozens of meetings without the premise, that is, let the Afghan government and its troops retreat for the US military. Almost all the “black swan events” that changed the course of history were unpredictable and explainable afterwards, but the impact was huge.
Regardless of whether the withdrawal is decent or not, it is finally over. Biden did not leave a soldier in Afghanistan because he believes that Afghanistan has nothing to do with the interests and security of the United States. After ending this war, Biden’s top priority is to redefine the security and interests of the United States. He asked a question: If 9/11 were launched by terrorists from Yemen, would the United States still fight in Afghanistan? of course not. The only desirable and desirable goal of the American war in Afghanistan is to prevent terrorist organizations from posing a threat to the United States, but this war has become a “nation building” for Afghanistan. The end result is that the United States went to war in Afghanistan and overthrew the Taliban regime. After the United States withdrew, the Taliban still held power in Kabul. Isn’t this a complete defeat?
Biden said that this is not only to end the war in Afghanistan, but also to end the era of rebuilding other countries through war. Trump made a similar statement at the graduation ceremony of the West Point Military Academy last year: The U.S. military is to protect the security and interests of the United States, not to carry out nation-building in remote areas unknown to the Americans. The war in Afghanistan changed from combating terrorist organizations to “imperial conquest”, just as the Roman Empire crossed the Danube into the forests of Germany. It was difficult to conquer and had to retreat. The end of the war in Afghanistan was a punishment for the impulse to conquer the American empire. Although Biden did not explicitly say, he basically accepted or suffered the consequences. Secretary of State Blincoln said vaguely, “This is also a time for reflection. The war in Afghanistan has been going on for 20 years. We must learn lessons and let these lessons have an impact on how we think about fundamental issues of national security and foreign policy. . We have a responsibility to do this for future diplomats, policy makers, military leaders and members of the armed forces. We have a responsibility to do this for the Americans.”
In the past 20 years, the world has changed dramatically. The Afghan War locked the United States on counter-terrorism or “building” an American ideal modern democracy in Afghanistan. Since the Trump administration, the United States has adjusted the focus of its national security strategy. Anti-terrorism is no longer the number one issue of the United States. Trump has returned to the game of major powers. Biden’s goal in ending the war in Afghanistan is to get rid of strategic baggage, tighten the front, and focus on the security and interests of the United States. Like Trump, Biden believes that fierce competition with China, response to Russia’s challenge and response to cyber attacks are all urgent issues for the United States. Is terrorism going against it? The United States was also attacked during the withdrawal, resulting in the deaths of 13 American soldiers, but Biden will not use ground forces to fight terrorism, but in other ways.
The war waged in the name of anti-terrorism ended quickly under the threat of terrorism. Was it a failure? of course. But why didn’t Biden increase troops in Afghanistan? Because he wants to adjust the US strategy, end the war in Afghanistan, and enter the post-“counter-terrorist country” era.
2. Where is the next battlefield in the United States?
Biden believes that his troop withdrawal decision is wise, correct, and most beneficial to the United States. He urges Americans to look forward, not backward. The 20-year war in Afghanistan can be ended, but the “war-time system” formed in 20 years cannot be “turned over” at once. The late political scientist Huntington said that the United States needs enemies. The United States needs “others” or enemies to establish its identity. In the history of the United States, war is the norm, especially after the United States participated in the First World War, it has been in a wartime state almost all the time.
After 9/11, the United States has made “counter-terrorism” its number one strategic task. The “war on terrorism” launched by Bush Jr. contains three objectives: combating terrorist organizations, overthrowing the Taliban regime, and democratizing the greater Middle East. With absolute superiority, the US military achieved the first two goals in less than three months. But the transformation of the Middle East and the establishment of a free and democratic system are behind a thousand-year history of “clash of civilizations”, a confrontation between civilization and barbarism.
The war in Afghanistan is a guerrilla war between the military machinery of the world’s number one power and the Taliban. The US war machinery has been unprecedentedly strengthened in the past 20 years. Together with the Iraq War, the US spent 7 trillion US dollars. After the war, will the war machine be disbanded? This is not necessarily the case. The current influence of the US military industry interest groups has already exceeded the time when Eisenhower put forward this concept.
The war on terrorism is an all-round war. The rise of the war on terrorism by the United States to “global anti-terrorism” is tantamount to a world war. After Al-Qaida was dismantled, global terrorist organizations were also “iterating”. The Islamic State (ISIS) once occupied most of Iraq and Syria, and launched a series of terrorist attacks in Europe. Attack of the Khorasan branch of the “Islamic State”. Both Biden and previous US presidents believe that the war on terrorism has been won because the United States has not been attacked by terrorists again.
External terrorists did not launch attacks on the United States, but the far-right inside the United States attacked Capitol Hill. Is there an internal connection between the September 11th 2001 and the “1.6” Capitol Hill riots in 2021? The fear of Islamic extremism has inspired Americans’ “civilization” or religious identity. The counterpart of Islamic fundamentalism is Christian fundamentalism. Racial conflicts in the United States broke out again, and the rise in identity politics cannot but be said to be one of the consequences of the “counter-terrorist state” system since 9/11.
After retreating from the Hindu Kush Mountain, where is Biden going? In response to global warming, strengthening public health, competing with China, and containing Russia, it is difficult for the United States to enter multiple battlefields at once. Climate change is Biden’s eye, but the problem is that the Cold War machine formed by the United States during the Cold War and the “counter-terrorism state” system formed during the Afghanistan War have neither the will nor the ability to deal with climate change.
For Biden, the biggest challenge and obstacle to adjusting the strategic direction lies in the path dependence of the US “war machine”. Of course, this is also the biggest challenge and risk facing Sino-US relations. At the end of the war in Afghanistan, the US climate envoy Kerry visited China for the second time. This can be seen as a major move by Biden to adjust the focus of his strategy, and it is also an indicator of whether Biden can start a new era.
3. The Afghan War and the Limits of Globalization
The Afghan War has run through the three major crises of the United States in the first 20 years of the 21st century, namely the war on terrorism, the financial crisis, and the crisis of the new crown epidemic. Fundamentally speaking, this is a blow to the globalization led by the United States. The hidden geopolitics, economic imbalances, and the broken or mottled “foundation” of the natural environment are once again revealed. The Afghan War, in its essence, was a thrilling leap towards an “empire” by the United States, which is leading globalization, and fell into a mud pit. The retreat of the United States from Afghanistan is not only a failure of the imperial strategy, but also a contraction of globalization.
In terms of breadth, globalization has covered the entire planet and part of outer space, forming a super-large-scale division of labor and cooperation system. This is where the dividends and motivation of globalization lie; in terms of density, globalization has moved from trade in goods to Technology and industry are integrated and transferred. Cheap shipping, aviation and the Internet have woven an airtight interactive network, so that the blockage of the Suez Canal will cause global shipping prices to soar. In addition, high-density interaction is also changing the relationship between man and nature. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, people should be more cautious about the “anthropocene” of the earth. The abnormality of the global climate system may be the periodic law of the earth, perhaps Influence from human activities. From the perspective of the depth of globalization, in a world where time and space are compressed, the identity of individuals has become an urgent issue. The 20-year war in Afghanistan is a long overseas war for the United States. Said, just for a moment. The Taliban will regain power, and their way of governing may be more moderate, but their thinking remains the same.
Some scholars once regarded the globalization movement led by the United States as a “new empire”, or a new form of empire, while the Afghan War was the conquest of the frontiers by the center of the empire. The 20-year war did not win and could only retreat. Since Trump, the United States has adjusted its global strategy and withdrew from Afghanistan and other Middle East regions. The war has proved that the Hindu Kush is a difficult frontier for the United States to conquer. The retreat or contraction does not mean the disintegration of the empire. After all, the United States is a sea power country. From the heart of the Eurasian continent to the edge of land and sea, to rebuild the strategic frontier of the United States, this is probably the core of Bidenism. The Vietnam War had a huge impact on the United States and even produced the “Vietnam Syndrome”. The United States did not engage in large-scale overseas wars until the Gulf War. What cures the “Vietnam Syndrome” of the United States? It is a technological revolution. The information technology revolution in the 1970s and 1980s not only promoted the process of globalization, but also transformed the United States and the world economy, making the United States the leader of the global economy. The United States military also changed its face in the 1980s during the Gulf War. Shows the new form of war brought about by the revolution in military technology. Biden’s retracement is also to return to the United States, that is, the “3B” plan he promoted, which puts resources into American technological innovation and employment, which is actually the Biden version of “America First”.
In the past 20 years, the United States has fought in the Middle East and pushed the border of “New Rome” to the hinterland of Eurasia, far beyond the British Empire. However, after the withdrawal of the United States, the greater Middle East did not rebuild political order. From a longer perspective, from the Khomeini Revolution in 1979 and the rise of political Islamism, to 2021, for 40 years, it is not the US-led globalization that has prevailed, but the globalization rebels. The Middle East is considered to be the fault lines of globalization. The “Pentagon’s new map” is to stitch these fault lines. However, the reality is that the Middle East either rejects globalization or is difficult to globalize. It can and has been globalized. It’s just oil in the Middle East. As for the geopolitics and civilized structure of globalization, they are fragmented here. The withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan and the Middle East also means that it has accepted the “non-globalization” of the Middle East.
(Note: Sun Xingjie, deputy director and professor of the Institute of International Relations, Jilin University. This article only represents the author’s personal views. The editor’s mailbox bo.liu@ftchinese.com)
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