Wetter weather ahead.
The latest readings indicate at the end of the week of September 10, 2023 that the difference between the western part and the eastern part of the Indian Ocean basin is well above 0.4°C
This positive anomaly will continue, indicates the weather stations in the region, which have maintained the El Nino alert for this part of the world which closely follows the variations in the Pacific Ocean where the effects are most discernible.
The humidity is therefore close to our regions, thus conducive to the formation of more convective clouds than a year ago. We will have to expect systems which will originate closer to the Mascarenes.
The difference in the IOD will decrease in the months to come, passing according to forecasts from +1.5 in October 2023 to +0.3 in February 2024, thus returning to a so-called neutral phase.
The weak passage of the MJO will not shake the coconut trees but the monsoon may be more important in the northern part of our basin. This same wave which was strong in the Atlantic which gave birth to Lee, Margot and two other systems which are followed. Just like in northern Africa bringing rain.
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