BEIJING (Reuters) – Beijing on February 24 released a document outlining China’s position on the Ukraine crisis, calling on Russia and Ukraine to come together and pursue a complete ceasefire. Xi Jinping is expected to visit Russia soon to meet Putin, and is said to be planning a virtual meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
China’s foreign ministry said it was in contact with both sides, but has not formally confirmed that Xi will meet Putin or Zelensky. However, there is speculation that China is trying to invite Russia and Ukraine to the peace talks table.
◎ Reasons why China is trying to mediate
China has traditionally adhered to the principle of non-intervention in conflicts with other countries, especially those in regions far from China. But Beijing last week brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalize diplomatic relations, and under Xi’s leadership China is trying to present itself as a responsible power, analysts say.
“Xi would like to be seen as a politician at least as influential in the international community as the president of the United States,” said Wang Jiankyu, a law professor at the City University of Hong Kong.
China is also desperate to dispel criticism that it is siding with aggressor Russia on the Ukraine issue.
Playing the role of an intermediary is seen as a “low risk, high return” endeavor for China, even if there is little chance of an early breakthrough.
◎ China Peace Plan
In a document titled “Political Solution to the Ukraine Crisis,” China urged Russia and Ukraine to gradually ease tensions and reach a comprehensive ceasefire.
The document calls for the protection of civilians and respect for the sovereignty of all nations, but refrains from condemning Russia’s aggressive actions.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine have shown much welcome, and the United States and NATO have questioned China’s neutrality.
Ukraine claims that peace will only be considered after Russia withdraws all troops from Ukrainian territory Ukraine opposes China’s offer, arguing that it did not mention that Russia should withdraw to the borders established after the fall of the Soviet Union and chanting. However, he later showed a willingness to think about some parts of the proposal.
Russia said it would consider China’s offer, but said there were no signs of a peace deal so far.
The United States criticized China for presenting itself as neutral and seeking peace, while at the same time accepting Russia’s “false” about the war and providing non-military aid and considering military aid.
NATO said China could not be trusted as a mediator in Ukraine.
◎ The role played by China
Experts say it will be difficult for China to bring Russia and Ukraine to the table for peace talks, unlike Saudi Arabia and Iran.
“Saudi Arabia and Iran really want dialogue and better relations, but Russia and Ukraine don’t, at least for now,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center.
Yun said Xi could work behind the scenes to create momentum for dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, which is currently unlikely.
However, Turkey’s failed attempt to invite Russian and Ukrainian representatives to Istanbul in the weeks after the outbreak of war last year to stimulate talks underlines how difficult compromise can be.
◎ Means China can use it
Some experts say China has advantages over Turkey as a mediator. The point is that she has more influence over Russia.
China is Russia’s most important ally, buying Russian oil and providing a market for Russian products that the West has closed off.
China also has some influence over Ukraine. Samuel Ramani, a Russia expert at the University of Oxford, said Ukraine would not want to ruin its chances of receiving aid from China in its post-war reconstruction period.
Ramani said China has expanded trade with Ukraine since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and has not recognized Crimea as Russian territory.
“Most importantly, Mr Zelensky does not want to go out of his way to provoke China to supply arms to Russia,” he said.
◎ Can China act as an honest mediator?
China, with its strong ties to Russia, would be viewed with great suspicion if it acted as a mediator. Shortly before launching its invasion of Ukraine, China and Russia had declared “unlimited” friendship.
Although China has been promoting peace since the start of the war, it largely respects Russia’s position. In other words, NATO threatened Russia to expand to the east, and the West intensified the war by supplying Ukraine with tanks and missiles.
Andrew Small, a senior fellow at Germany’s Marshall Institute, says China wants to be seen as part of the peace effort, but is not prepared to force Putin to end the war at the expense of its relationship with Russia and analysis. “China has not pressured Russia so far or forced it to do anything,” he said.
