Original title: International crude oil first fell and then rose, retail prices of refined oil rose again
Economic Observer reporter Gao Ge International crude oil shows a fluctuating upward trend, driving the rate of change of crude oil to fluctuate upwards. This round of refined oil retail price limits will again face an upward adjustment.
On September 18, many institutions predicted that the retail price of gasoline and diesel will be increased by 90 yuan and 85 yuan per ton respectively at 24:00 today, and the discounted prices of 92# gasoline and 0# diesel will both be raised by 0.07 yuan.
This round is the eighteenth price adjustment in 2021 and the twelfth increase in refined oil prices during the year. After this price adjustment, the price adjustment of refined oil products in 2021 will show a pattern of “twelve ups, three downs, and three strandeds”.
Consumer travel costs will rise. According to calculations by Zhuochuang Information, taking a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, filling a tank of 92# gasoline will cost about 3.5 yuan more than before. In the logistics industry, taking the Steyr heavy-duty truck with a monthly mileage of 10,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers as an example, the fuel cost of a single vehicle will increase by about 186 yuan before the next price adjustment window opens.
Changes in this round of price adjustment cycle first fell and then rose, showing positive fluctuations. According to Li Chunyan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, the reason is that the continued interruption of U.S. Gulf crude oil production after Hurricane Ada may benefit the oil industry, which is worried about demand due to the Delta epidemic. With the end of the peak season, Ada may become an equalizer to balance the market and support crude oil prices. Since late August, about three-quarters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico’s crude oil production capacity, or about 1.4 million barrels per day, has been in a state of suspension, roughly equivalent to Nigeria’s output, and the recovery after the hurricane has been slower than expected.
As of the week of September 10, US crude oil commercial inventories fell by 6.422 million barrels, much higher than the expected reduction of 3.574 million barrels. The EIA report shows that crude oil inventories in the Midwest of the United States fell to their lowest level since October 2018. U.S. Gulf Coast crude oil inventories fell to their lowest level since January 2020.
Dai Tiandong, a refined oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, analyzed that the international market this week was mainly centered on the hurricane problem, and both production and demand declined. However, the refinery started earlier than the drilling, resulting in a continuous decline in inventories. Therefore, the international oil price in this cycle The overall trend is volatile, which drives the domestic reference crude oil rate of change to fluctuate upward.
In the later stage, Longzhong Information analyst Li Yan believes that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustments will begin to show an upward trend, with an amplitude of about 60 yuan/ton. At present, the global economy and demand still maintain a recovery trend. At the same time, OPEC+ output strategy is cautious, and there is still no substantial progress on the Iran issue. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustments is likely to increase.
The point of view from Zhuo Chuang Information also believes that the next round of refined oil retail prices may face an upward adjustment. Dai Tiandong said that due to the continuous decline in crude oil inventory levels, the future international crude oil may show a trend of rising first and then oscillating. After the implementation of the upward adjustment policy, the recalculated rate of change of crude oil may be in a positive range.
According to the calculation of the adjustment cycle of the current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, a new round of gasoline and diesel price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on October 9.Return to Sohu to see more
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