[Japan C / Anoma Analyze-Part 1]Shahryar is △ Evaluation A sign of “one shot” for a long-range gun with a win of 10 times or more | SPREAD

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2021.11.26Takeshi Yamada

Almond Eye, Contrail, Daring Tact’s “Male Triple Crown Horse” confrontation last yearJapan Cup.. This year too, it was a good card for the first ever 4th generation derby horse competition.

Especially last year’s undefeated Triple Crown horse, which will be the last runContrailAnd won this year’s Japan Derby with a recordShahryarAttention is focused on the confrontation, but last year was the first time in 11 years for the 1st and 2nd most popular one-two settlements. The key to capturing the Japan Cup is the excavation of the hole horse that breaks into the “two-strong”.

◆[Japan Cup 2021 Forecast / Dangerous Popular Horses]One of the top two horses is “erased” One “should not be bought” in a battle where nine domestic and foreign GI horses gathered

■ Good running conditions for Anoma are long-distance results

In the last 10 years of the Japan Cup, horses with winning odds of 10 times or more have been involved in betting tickets 10 times. Looking for the commonalities of the horses, there was a tendency for so-called “long-range guns”, which have a track record of winning prizes of 2400m or more in turf, to make holes.

For example, Cheval Grand, who was the 5th most popular in 2017, was the 6th most popular 3rd in the Japan Cup the previous year, and after the Hanshin Daishōten, the Emperor’s Award, and the 2nd in a row in the spring of the same year, the previous run and the Kyoto Grand Prize. In the standard, he was running well in 3rd place.

In particular, horses that have a track record of finishing 3rd in the Kyoto Grand Prize, Hanshin Grand Prize, Tenno Sho, and Spring often run well in the Japan Cup. The last impact of the 2nd most popular, Tosen Jordan, the 11th most popular in 2013, and the 3rd most popular Jaguar Mail in 2011 fall under this category.

Of the 10 applicable cases, only Spielberg, who was the 6th most popular in 2014, was able to run the Japan Cup well without having a track record of 2400m or more in the turf. A long-distance track record is required for a horse with winning odds of 10 times or more to run well.

■ Derby record Shahryar is △

The reason why long-range guns run well in the Japan Cup is the race lap. For example, the Japan Cup in 2020 was a complete forward leaning lap with 35 seconds 3 in the first half-37.8 in the second half, and the Japan Derby in the same year was a clear backward leaning lap with 36 seconds 8 in the first half to 34 seconds 3 in the second half.

▼ Japan Cup (Almond Eye)
12.7-10.8-11.8-11.3-11.3-11.5-11.8-11.9-12.1-12.3-13.2-12.3

▼ Japan Derby (Contrail)
12.6-11.3-12.9-12.6-12.3-11.8-12.2-12.3-11.8-11.3-11.3-11.7

In last year’s Japan Cup, although he was not involved in the betting ticket against the three Triple Crown horses, the previous year’s 2nd Oaks and 2nd Japan Cup Curren Bouquetd’or were 4th, the previous year’s Emperor’s Award / Spring 2nd, and Hong Kong Vase. Glory Vase, who finished 1st in the previous race and 1st in the Kyoto Grand Prize, finished 5th, and horses with a long-distance track record are in the top ranks.

Has a track record of 2nd place in last year’s Japan Cup, which was a forward leaning lapContrailCan be said to be “correct”, but this year’s derby horseShahryar“Yellow traffic light” lights up.

The horse is a type that has won the speed enough to clock the race record in Japan Record Thailand and Japan Derby with 1800m turf at the Mainichi Hai, and is highly suitable for middle distance around 2000m. At the Kobe Shimbun Hai in the first round of autumn, he was completely defeated in a tough horse race, and the suitability for the tough horse race peculiar to the Japan Cup remains questionable.

This is one of the “two strongest”ShahryarTo the △ evaluation, the Argentine Republic Cup consecutive championshipauthorityI would like to evaluate the long-range guns such as. “Part 2(Scheduled to be released at 17:00 on Saturday) ”, a“ blind spot ”is struck from a horse with a long-distance track record.

◆[Japan Cup 2021 Forecast / Overtake Judge]“A” rating, which exceeds Shahryar, is a popular blind spot.

◆[Japan Cup 2021 Forecast / Data Strategy]A high wall with a “win rate of 0%” that stands in the way of “light and dark” against two leading horses.

◆[Japan Cup 2021 Forecast / Pedigree Trend]“American Dirt Blood” that is 100% common to Anoma The aim is assumed to be 5 less popular planets

▼ UMAJIN Channel “Winning! Okai Juku-Japan C Edition”

Author profile

Tsuyoshi Yamada ● Editor-in-chief of “SPREAD”
Former editor-in-chief of horse racing monthly magazine, and now editor-in-chief of media “SPREAD” that reads the future of sports. Since being shocked by the runaway of the 16th most popular 2nd place Meisho Tezoro in the 1995 Mile CS, he has been pursuing the Anoma forecast. The hit of the heart is 559,700 yen for the 2017 Kikuka Award, which was won by Kiseki.