Just like we did with Huawei… US considers new export sanctions to Russia

[이데일리 방성훈 기자] The Joe Biden administration is considering new export sanctions to damage Russia’s strategic industries, such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing and civil aerospace industries, following financial sanctions in preparation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, The Washington Post (WP) reported on the 23rd (local time), citing multiple U.S. government sources.

The U.S. government is also reportedly discussing applying broad-ranging sanctions to the mundane, including potentially banning the sale of some smartphone, tablet and video console games to Russia.

Sources say it aims to block the flow of important components (parts) in industries such as civil aviation, maritime and high-tech, which Russian President Vladimir Putin is ambitious to pursue, and is working with European and Asian allies to create relevant regulations. said he was doing In particular, close discussions are taking place with Germany, Russia’s largest trading partner and highly dependent on Russia’s energy.

Internally, the White House National Security Council (NSC) recently had a phone call with officials from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and the Global Industries Association (SEMI) to discuss economic restrictions imposed on Russia. A senior official, who requested anonymity, emphasized, “The power of these export controls could undermine and undermine the sector’s ability to become a key growth engine of the Russian economy.”

These sanctions, including the so-called ‘foreign direct product rule’, would be similar to those that nearly crippled Chinese Huawei, the WP predicted. If any parts or technology made in the United States are being used, it is a method to completely ban the import of any devices made anywhere in the world into Russia.

“Today, almost all electronic products contain semiconductors,” the WP said. All modern technology relies on this little component. “There are very few products on the planet that do not use semiconductors,” he explained.

Kevin Wolf, who blacklisted China’s ZTE during the former Barack Obama administration’s deputy secretary of commerce, said: “If the goal is to inflict a serious and overwhelming blow to the Russian economy, combining sanctions and export controls on major Russian banks is an absolutely huge step forward. It will be,” he predicted.

However, if Russia responds with retaliatory sanctions in other industries such as energy, US and European companies could be hit, and foreign companies could face headwinds as they try to exclude US technology from their products to export to Russia. concerns are raised This is because the sanctions currently pursued by the US government are not just for a single company like Huawei, but target the entire country. This is unprecedented.

Robert Atkinson, president of the Information Technology Innovation Foundation (ITIF), a think tank, said, “Companies in other countries are trying to find alternatives (such as making products without the use of American technology or parts), believing that the United States has complete control over them. I will do it,” he said.

According to sources, the US government has not yet decided whether to limit sanctions against Russia to strategic industries or extend it to everyday devices. Paul Triolio, head of technology policy at Eurasia Group, said, “In either case, the target will be the weaponization of export sanctions against the entire country of Russia.”

Experts say that no matter what decision is made, most multinational companies in the Western world will follow the US government’s export controls. He said there are concerns.

Meanwhile, Russia sneered at the US sanctions, saying, “We are manufacturing many parts ourselves,” and that it would rather harm the exports of US companies.

In this regard, some experts analyzed that China could become Russia’s way out even if the US imposes sanctions. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in 2020, China accounted for about 70% of Russia’s computer and smartphone imports.

Simon Baker, an analyst at US market research firm IDC, said: “Chinese manufacturers can continue to sell to Russia even if they use US technology. “It will be very difficult to monitor Chinese smartphone sales to Russia.” In this case, the US government could face a diplomatic dilemma as to whether it should impose sanctions on non-military products as well.

Former and current US officials and experts agree that “the most important goal of the US government is ‘deterrence’.” Edward Fishman, a former Obama administration official, said: “As long as President Putin uses Russia’s technological and industrial capabilities to harass neighbors and attack democracy, the United States has no interest in supporting Russia’s technological and industrial capabilities. ” he said.