Kasikorn Research Center Looking for if the covids are still prolonging – can’t control pushing Thai household debt to continue to rise
Date 31 Dec 2021 time 11:27
Kasikorn Research Center Quarterly Thai Household Debt Analysis 3/21 has outstanding household debt increased from the second quarter to 6.71 billion baht from housing debt – credit card debt – personal loan – occupation debt.
Kasikorn Research Center reveal the results of the analysis According to the latest report on loans to households, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) reflects that Even though Thai households continue to incur more debt But there are more caution signs in line with the economic situation that is still affected by the Covid-19 outbreak.
Thai household debt outstanding in Q3/21 stood at 14.35 trillion baht. increased by 4.2% YoY compared to the same period last year.
However, it is worth noting that The growth of such household borrowings In addition to being a slower pace compared to the 5.1% YoY growth in 2Q21, the rise in household debt also coincided with an increase in the value of economic activity.
This picture has resulted in the ratio of household debt to GDP in the 3rd quarter of 2021. remained stable at approximately 89.3%, the same as in Q2/21
Although most of the household debt is still home debt. However, the Kasikorn Research Center found that Characteristics of household debt in the 3rd quarter of 2021 There was a difference from the previous quarter in that there were signs of increasing debt to enhance liquidity and/or support more daily expenses.
This corresponds to the acceleration of personal loan portfolios. Both for commercial banks and nonbank operators must admit that Covid-19 epidemic The third wave, which covers the period in the 3rd quarter of 2021, is likely to have a greater impact on the financial health of many households.
because the more covid-19 Prolonging the income situation is still sluggish, households may have to gradually use the liquidity of the savings that they had previously accumulated. Or in those with a very tight financial position, it may be necessary to incur more debt to enhance short-term liquidity to support consumer expenditure.
However, if looking at the details of household debt in the quarter 3/2564 will find that Household debt outstanding increased from the previous quarter (Quarteron Quarter: QoQ) by approximately 67.1 billion baht, of which this amount was a result of a rise in 1. Debt for housing (increased by 524 billion baht QoQ), 2. credit card debt and personal loans (increased by 4.40 billion baht QoQ) and 3. debt for occupation (increased by 27.2 billion baht QoQ), respectively.
The picture reflects the nature and objectives of the debt incurrency in the 3rd quarter of 2021 that is different from the previous quarter. 1/2564 and quarter 2/2564, during which time
The second leading cause of rising household debt will be career debt rather than credit card and personal loan debt. which should be aimed to focus more on spending for general consumption
For the trend of Thai household debt Kasikorn Research Center views that the situation of the Covid-19 outbreak The prolonged period may lead to the small population and the household sector to be more cautious when incurring additional debt. Due to the high uncertainty of working status and income As a result, Kasikorn Research Center expects that even in 2022, household debt outstanding will continue to grow, but it should be a growth rate that is closer to the economy (under the assumption that the risk of COVID-19 will be limited in a timely manner and economic activities can support the recovery) Therefore, the projection of the household debt to GDP ratio in 2022 at a frame of 90-92% per GDP.
The debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to rise slightly from the 2021 forecast of 90.5%.
However, it remains to be closely monitored for the COVID-19 situation because if it takes more time to care/control than expected It may give the possibility that the household debt to GDP ratio will rise above the 2022 projection.
While the main problem for Thai households with debt burden remains to carefully manage their expenditures and balance them with the uncertain income situation in order to maintain their ability to repay their debts. But if there is a problem, you must urgently contact a financial institution. to find appropriate measures such as debt restructuring Or combine microfinance loans with home loans to help reduce the burden of interest and installment payments. in order to sustain yourself through this difficult time