Kasikorn Securities said that the important factorglobal stock marketsWaiting to follow now is the meeting. Fed On 20-21 September.arouse interest 0.75% or not? And wait and see Dotplot, the US interest rate direction this year and next year will be. After this week the numbersthe US economyThat comes out, CPI and PPI inflation, reflecting that it is past its peak. but still higher than expected the market causing the market to be volatile
Domestic parts followThe baht weakened to 37 baht per dollar, the highest in 16 years. Evaluated as positive sentiment per share in export sectors such as food exports, electronics but will affect the importer and companies with high dollar debt Meanwhile, the depreciation of the baht will put pressure on the short-term fund flow.
In the short term, the depreciation of the baht was due to an appreciation of Dollar index KBANK estimates that the baht will return to strengthening towards the end of the year around Bt35.5, supported
1.) The trend of tourists continued to increase during the 4th quarter, supporting the balance of the service.
2.) Thai economy is improving
3.) Thai inflation has passed its peak.
4.) International reserves, etc.
investment strategy
switch holdingsharethat foreigners hold a high share such as (hospitals Electronics, Energy and Real Estate) to lag stocks such as CK Contractor Group, PLANB Media, CPALL Commercial Group, SAWAD Finance Group, SAK Packaging Group SCGP and SCB Banking Group.
In these stocks, foreign investors still have very little. and is the main beneficiary of opening up the economy revitalizing tourism Better agricultural income, FDI andeconomic stimulus measuresfrom the government
Top choice
SCGP (base price 57.0 baht)
– Looking at 2H65 earnings better than 1H65 after coal prices Freight has fallen around 40% since its peak, lowering imported RCP costs and improving spreads Big improvements are expected in 4Q22.
– Received a positive feeling from China, announced the lifting of the lockdown measures in Chengdu
– The current share price has fallen from the high of the year. This reflects a lot of bad news, with 12M FWDPER around 26 times, or around 0.5SD, and 12M FWD PBV (x) around 2.2 times, or around -0.5SD.
SAWAD (base price 55.0 baht)
– Expect profits for 3Q22 to grow QoQ, be strong and continue to be good This was driven by high farm income and an increase in the minimum wage.
– NPL is expected not to increase in the short term 3-6 months
– Foreign financial groups still have a small percentage
– Valuation is the cheapest, with a PER of 65 at 16x compared to competitors such as MTC and TIDLOR at 17x and 20x respectively.
AWC (base price 6.45 baht)
– ADR of ’66 is expected to be higher than the level before the epidemic in 2019 by 2% of the recovery of the ADR in 65.
– AWC’s strong financial profile reports 2Q22 interest bearing debt (IBD) to equity at 0.6x, the lowest among hotels.
– Queen Sirikit Center Officially opened on September 12, it supports 100% MICE and events, and APEC 2022 will take place during the month. November is a factor that supports MICE-focused hotels like AWC.
Economic issues worth following
– September 19: Auction of three and six month US Treasury bills.
– September 20: Japan National Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) (August) Market expectation 2.4% YoY, Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Building Permit Report (August) Estimated 1.61 million homes, US Redbook report (year) on year).
– September 21: US 20-Year Bond Auction, API Quarterly Core Inventory Report, Current Home Sales (August) Expected Market 4.62 million homes.
– September 22: Fed and Dotplot meeting, Japan interest rate decision, number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time.
– September 23: US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (September) Market expected 52.0 points.
