Kasikorn Securities said that if there isa political organization outside Parliament After the Constitutional Court ruled that the prime minister’s clue for 8 years will be an accelerating factorThe baht depreciatedContinued pressure Outflow of money The SET movement will have resistance 1,630 points and 1,655 points, support 1,600 points and the Worst Case is expected to be at 1,585 points.
Still the same view Thailand’s stock market fundamentals are still strong 1.) Gradually increasing GDP Growth The World Bank recently increased Thai GDP to 3.1% 2.) The chance of a recession is still low.
As for foreign factors, they need to be monitored: 7 October US Nonfarm payrolls figures for September Market expect 250,000 cases from 3.15 lakh in August 2.) OPEC+ meeting on 5 October C. and mid-October 13, by US inflation tracking figures, September and China, following the General Assembly of the Communist Party of China on October 16.
investment theme
1.) Open city theme in Thailand BA, BJC, BEM recommended.
2.) Chinese theme preparing to open the country Following additional stimulus measures after President Xi Jinping resumes his 3rd term in mid-October, it is expected to be positive for stocks that benefit from China, such as PSL , SCGP, AOT, SPA, EKH.
3.) Defensive stocks such as GULF
4.) Strong profit group in the 3rd quarter as TU
Top choice
– GULF (base price 49.50 baht)
1.) It is a defensive stock during stock market volatility.
2.) When assessing the profit direction of IPP power plants such as GULF, second half earnings will clearly recover.
3.) GULF is developing a number of power equipment projects that will support its long-term growth, and is studying the possibility of doing business outside the power equipment sector, such as digital infrastructure. This is expected to be a new source of net profit and growth in the long term.
– TU (base price 22.50 baht)
1.) 3Q22 profit is expected to grow 12.5% YoY and 34% QoQ to Bt2.2bn due to strong sales growth, higher GPM and no one-time transactions.
2.) TU shares are currently trading at a 2023 PER of 11.3x, or about 1.5SD, below the historical PER level We maintain a BUY recommendation based on its affordable share value, with TU to report earnings . on 2 Nov.
Economic issues worth following
– October 3: Major manufacturing index from Tankan survey (3rd quarter), European manufacturing PMI (September), expected market stable 48.5 points, purchasing managers index (PMI). Manufacturing (September)
– October 4: Tokyo CPI Excluding Food and Energy Products (Month-Month) (September), new vacancies from US JOLTs (August), estimated at 10 million.
– 5 Oct.: Quarterly crude inventories report from API, composite PMI from S&P Global (September) Europe, expected 48.2 points, change in non-farm payrolls from ADP (ADP) (September) (September)
– October 6: The European Central Bank will publish its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Building PMI (September) Managers’ Index.
– October 7: US unemployment rate (September), market expects flat 3.7%, September Nonfarm payrolls, market expects 250,000 from 3.15 lakh in August.
