Kasikorn Securities Looking at the Thai stock market, it’s not a long-term uptrend. with movements in a frame of 1600-1,666 points, which is the issue that affects investment in this period Most of them have nothing new. Recently, one of the Fed committees James Bullard turned back to signal that the United States will cut interest rates in 2023 or 2024 from the previous signal of accelerating interest rates. KS is optimistic on the stock market.
On the 30-31 May Follow the European Union (EU) Summit to consider oil sanctions from Russia. It is also expected to be a factor supporting global crude oil prices to stabilize at a high level. It is a positive factor for PTT, PTTEP, but becomes a negative sentiment towards anti-commodity shares such as (PTG, EPG, SCGP, BGRIM, GULF, OR, AAV, BA).
as well as having to follow up on the number of leading economic index reports For the developed countries, the main ones are the US, June 2, following the Beige Book and Friday, June 3, reporting May Nonfarm payrolls, market expected 350,000 cases and US unemployment rate, market expected 3.5. %, down from 3.6% in April
KS expects the labor market to remain strong. Even the US home market will begin to slow down. But it is expected to encourage the Fed to continue raising interest rates. Asia side On June 1, China will ease the Shanghai lockdown as a positive sentiment towards commodity prices.
investment strategy
KS retains the same viewpoint. If the stock that investors are profitable, we recommend only Lock Profit, profit during the SET Index swings in the frame of 1630-1666 points. Evaluate the market during this period. There is an opportunity. Sideway recommends Selective, focusing on stocks with positive factors such as
1.) Open cities such as BEM, CENTEL, OR, PTG, D, AMATA
2.) Defensive groups such as BH, BDMS, ADVANC, AP
3.) Refinery Group recommends SPRC, ESSO
4.) Groups that benefit from China open countries CPF, CBG, EKH
5.) Groups that benefit if the US abolishes tariffs (KCE, JWD)
6.) The group that benefited from the falling bond yield trend was the GUNKUL power plant group, the financial group (MTC, SAWAD, CHAYO, AMANAH).
The group that still recommends to slow down medium-long-term investments are electronics, automotive, petrochemicals. Due to the slowdown of economic concerns
Top pick
– AMANAH with a target price of 6.4 baht 1.) Expected earnings growth in the second quarter The management expects new loans in the second quarter of 2022 to exceed the level of 450 million baht in the first quarter of 2022 due to new loans until April. Year 2022 better than Jan. 2022 to 126 million baht, even with long holidays. Momentum is expected to continue to hit in May 2022.
2.) The company will begin to issue car registration loans in July 2022, which will increase competitiveness. As the 7% VAT is not charged on the hire purchase contract, AMANAH is able to offer its customers more attractive loan contracts. and a faster credit approval process.
3.) The share price has revised up from this year’s high of around 18%, and upside to the fundamental open price of around 28%.
Economic issues worth following
– 30 May: European Confidence Index in May, market expects 21.1 points, stable from the previous month, German inflation in May.
– May 31: Japanese industrial production in June, Japanese retail sales in April, market expected 0.4% MoM, China’s manufacturing PMI in May, market expected 48.0 points increase. Up from 47.4 in April, European inflation report, market expects 7.5% YoY, Consumer Confidence Index in May, market expects 104, down from 107.3.
– Jun 1: Follow Japan’s Capital Spending Q1, track May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, German retail sales April, markets expect 0.3% MoM, follow European manufacturing PMI month-on-month. May: Market expected to be stable at 54.4 points, US private sector jobs in May
– Jun 2 : Thursday, follow the US Beige Book, follow OPEC Meeting, follow the Factory Order in April.
– Jun 3: Track US Nonfarm payrolls in May, market expects 350,000 cases, US unemployment rate expects 3.5%, down from 3.6% in April.
