Kasikorn Securities predictThai stock marketNext week (29 Nov – 3 Dec) will move in a frame of 1,650 points +/- must monitor the situation.The spread of coronavirus in Europethat may be a factor that creates short-term volatility Austria is the first country to return to partial lockdown after a steady increase in new addicts.
While Germany is also evaluating the situation whether it has to turn to more stringent measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Austria and Germany are the two European countries with the lowest two-dose vaccination rates in Europe, about 64% and 67% of the population respectively.
While the big countries in Europe that still have a 2 dose injection rate of less than 70% are France, Sweden. and the United Kingdom which must closely monitor the situation of the epidemic of covids in the aforementioned countries
Britain recently suspended flights from six African countries. They are Namibia, Lesotho, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Eswatini and South Africa. Following the discovery of the new coronavirus, B.1.1.529, the WHO will assess the situation and study the small number of new strains found in South Africa. whether it can evade immunity or not
However Bloomberg Has made a Scenario 4Q21 GDP growth of Europe said.Base case Previously, if no European country had returned to lockdown, it was estimated that Europe’s 4Q21 GDP would grow +1.1% YoY. But in Austria and Germany, partial lockdown is required for 20 days. Expect 4Q21 GDP to grow +0.9% YoY.The case for the whole of Europe as a whole goes back to partial lockdown by 20 days. Expect 4Q21 GDP to grow to only +0.4% YoY.
Researchers say the coronavirus situation in Europe may be negative sentiment to put pressure on the stock market in the short term, especially in reopening stocks.If the stock declines as a rhythm to gradually accumulate investment Because it is still expected that the Covid situation will not escalate until having to go back to Full lockdown from the current vaccination rate in each of the world’s major countries.
Recommended stocks next week
– BLA (basic price 41.00 baht) The 4Q21 budget is expected to report strong new product releases and a lower combined ratio, while the rising bond yield will support the positive sentiment on the company.
– EPG (basic price 14.00 baht) It is expected that sales of all 3 businesses will continue to grow. It expects average growth over the next three years (FY21A-FY24E) at around 20% per annum. There is also upsides from M&A after its financial position flips to net-cash next year, while the company is able to pass on high costs. can be increased through an increase in selling prices
Economic issues worth following
-29 Nov: German Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-Month) (Nov.) Market Decrease 0.5%, Home sales pending closure. (Month-Month) (Oct.) US Market 1.0%
-30 Nov : Manufacturing Index (Month-Month) (Oct.) Japan Market Expected -3.2%, China Manufacturing PMI Index (Nov.) Market Depth 49.7, China Manufacturing (Nov.)
-1 Dec: Changes in non-farm payrolls from ADP (ADP) (Nov.) US market 480K, ISM Manufacturing PMI ( ISM) (Nov.) US Market 61.0
-2 Dec: Producer Price Index (PPI) (Year on Year) (Oct.) EU 15.2%
-3 Dec. : Non-farm payrolls (Nov.) US market 563K
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