Typhoon No. 3 ‘Guchol’ is imminent.
▶ The Korea Meteorological Administration updated the forecast for tropical depression No. 5 at 4:30 pm on the 6th, and announced that tropical depression No. 5 is expected to develop into Typhoon No. 3 within 24 hours.
On the 2nd, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) predicted that tropical disturbance 98W in southwest Guam could develop into a tropical cyclone (tropical depression) on the 2nd when new Typhoon No. 2 ‘Mawar’ leaving Okinawa, Japan. informed
As of today, four days later, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the United States, the Korea Meteorological Administration, and the Japan Meteorological Agency continue to forecast for tropical depression No. 5, created by the development of tropical disturbance 98W.
In our weather forecasts, from tomorrow (7th), the path is revealed assuming a condition that has developed into a typhoon Guchol.
All meteorological authorities in the three countries predict that tropical depression No. 5 will develop into Typhoon No. 3 Guchol either today or tomorrow, and the future path is also predicted in the same way.
According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, the 5th tropical depression was located about 1400 km east of Manila in the Philippines around 3:00 pm on the same day.
Then, after it develops into Typhoon Guchol, it continues its northward course with a mixture of north-west and north-east movements. The Korea Meteorological Administration predicts that Typhoon Guchol will be located in the sea about 600 km southeast of Okinawa around 3:00 pm on the 11th, five days later.
At this time, the intensity of the typhoon is expected to be as strong as ‘medium’. Typhoon intensity is classified as extremely strong, very strong, strong and medium.
The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Japan Meteorological Agency are also predicting a similar path to the north.
However, the ’tilt (angle)’ of northward movement is slightly different for each.
▶ The path after that is flexible.
Right now, it’s heading to the vicinity of Okinawa, where Typhoon Mawar made landfall. For the later path, the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) and National Weather Service (GFS) models also indicate a northeasterly movement in the sea south of mainland Japan, where it passed Typhoon March.
For now, all these previews reveal content that is far from bound to the Korean Peninsula.
Looking at the sea surface temperature in East Asia, the sea surface temperature is low compared to the period when the ‘autumn typhoons’ follow one after the other. The path of a typhoon is largely influenced by water vapor, which is the typhoon’s “food”, and sea surface temperature, which can measure heat.
In the future, it is also necessary to keep an eye on the high pressure composition around typhoons, that is, the ‘weather map’. This is because the edge of the high pressure soon becomes the course of the typhoon, which is ‘strong low pressure’.
▶ In addition to the path that the typhoon passes directly, it is also a point to keep an eye on as it can create huge rain clouds by introducing water vapor to nearby areas.
Previously, after Typhoon Mawar passed through the Okinawa region, it rained heavily over a wide area from west to east of mainland Japan, where the typhoon did not even approach, and some suffered heavy rain damage.
Typhoon Guchol, which is expected to develop shortly after tropical depression No. 5, is the name submitted by Micronesia among the 14 typhoon committee countries, and refers to ‘typhoon’, which is a type of spice.