KOSPI ‘notices’ Honjo’s approach… Maximum is 2490 lines [주간전망]
On the afternoon of the 25th, the status board of Hana Bank’s main branch dealing room in Euljiro, Jung-gu, Seoul came. On this day, the KOSPI closed at 2437.86, down 3.47 points (0.14%). In the Seoul foreign exchange market, the won-dollar exchange rate closed at 1323.7 won per dollar, down 4.5 won. Photo = Yonhap News This week, entering the month of December (November 28-December 2), the domestic stock market is expected to open a ‘market to watch’. In addition to the sluggish outlook for consumption in most developed countries except the United States, the burden on Korean stock market valuation is heavy. However, it is positive that credit risk (credit risk) is expected to be mitigated through the implementation of the asset-backed commercial paper purchase program (ABCP) for the financing of real estate projects (PF) worth 1.8 trillion.
According to the Korea Exchange on the 27th, the KOSPI index closed last week at 2437.86, down 6.62 points (0.27%) from the previous week. The index fell three days and rose two days in the last five trading days. Looking at supply and demand during this period, individuals alone sold 388.3 billion won, and foreigners and institutions bought 379.6 billion won and 150.9 billion won, respectively.
The KOSDAQ index finished trading at 733.56, up 1.64 points (0.22%) from the previous week. Jeonju individuals and foreigners net bought 25.4 billion won and 88.8 billion won, respectively, while institutions only net sold 28.9 billion won.
On the 25th (local time), the New York stock market closed mixed, highlighting consumer purchasing power in the wake of Black Friday, the biggest discount event in the United States. On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on this day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 closed at 34,347.03, up 152.97 points (0.45%) from the battlefield. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index closed at 4026.12, down 1.14 points (0.03%) from the battleground, and the Nasdaq closed at 11,226.36, down 58.96 points (0.52%). The previous day was closed for Thanksgiving, and on this day, the day after Thanksgiving, it closed early at 1:00 PM.
The stock market predicted that this week the stock market would play a ‘warning game’ while playing a tightrope between good news and bad news.
First of all, it appears that no change in the path has been confirmed in relation to the ‘speed of interest rate rise’, the biggest issue in the stock market. On the 23rd, the US central bank (Fed) suggested in the minutes of the regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in November that it would adjust the pace of future rate increases. Minutes released at the time said, “A significant majority of attendees were of the opinion that slowing the increase (base rate) would soon be appropriate.” However, as several committee members hinted at the possibility of a final rate hike, the outlook for the Fed’s rate hike path did not change significantly.
Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted that US retail sales during the November-December holidays would increase by 6-8% compared to last year. Compared to the average annual growth rate of 4.9%, this is a solid figure. However, the general view is that the global consumption economy, excluding the US, will be relatively slow. Boston Consulting Group said in a survey of nine countries, including the UK, Australia, France and Germany, that only in the US do consumers plan to spend more this year than last year.
However, there are also positives. On the 24th, the PF ABCP real estate purchase program worth 1.8 trillion won was implemented. The program will run until May 30 next year. This is expected to ease interest rate volatility in the CP market.
In addition, the Korean dividend system is being reformed. On the 28th, a draft of the Financial Services Commission’s capital market development plan is due to be published. The main point is to change the order in which listed companies determine dividends after the dividend reporting date.
Kim Yeong-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, “For an additional increase in the KSP, it seems that the risk appetite in the financial market needs to become stronger.” It is expected,” he said.
NH Investment & Securities presented the 2370-2490 line as the expected weekly band for this week. Reference was made to the Internet, healthcare, new and renewable energy, and nuclear energy as industries of interest.
Shin Min-kyung, Hankyung.com reporter radio@hankyung.com
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