Home World Krung Thai cuts GDP to 1.5-3%, indicating that COVID cannot be controlled in 3 months

Krung Thai cuts GDP to 1.5-3%, indicating that COVID cannot be controlled in 3 months

by news dir

Krungthai COMPASS Research Center revised the forecast frame of the 64 economy to grow 1.5-3% from 2.5% after the 3 outbreak of COVID-19, expected to last 3 months, affecting domestic tourism to 81.6 million people, causing damage to the money of 1.8 hundred thousand. Million baht. Uncontrollable in 3 months, dragging domestic demand up to 1.85 billion baht.

On April 22, 2021, the reporter reported that the Krungthai COMPASS Research Center estimated that the Thai economy would be adjusted forecasts to expand in the 1.5% -3.0% frame from the previous 2.5% .The Thai economy is less vulnerable to expansion than expected. It depends on three main factors: (1) the ability to effectively manage the mutant pandemic, (2) distribute vaccines according to the plan, and (3) the government injects more than 200 billion baht in economic support. If any one of these factors does not occur

However, if due to the new wave of epidemic in April 2021 again after just passing through the new outbreak of the crisis in January, by the beginning of April, the latest outbreak signal has become clear The epidemic in the Thonglor entertainment center cluster was further reported after it was discovered that a new infected person was infected with a mutated COVID-19 (B.117), the same one first encountered in England. This is reflected in the rapidly accelerating numbers of new HIV infections in the country. And spread to all provinces throughout the country in less than 2 weeks

The number of new infections may be twice as high as the current situation. The Ministry of Public Health (Ministry of Public Health) has estimated the number of new infections daily after the Songkran holiday in a total of 5 cases, in which case 2, the government orders the closure of entertainment venues in risky provinces closest to the current situation. The average daily number of infected people could reach 2,996, which is more than two times the latest figure (1,470 on April 22).

Krungthai COMPASS estimates that the impact on the economy may last at least 3 months, with the expectation that it will affect domestic travel plans. And it has resulted in difficult or postponing tourism stimulation plans in the next 3 months, in addition to the overall purchasing power. Especially from workers in the service sector who have to stop or reduce working hours

And this outbreak may affect the economy for at least 3 months depending on how quickly the disease control efficiency can be done. We view that the base case is that Thailand can control the outbreak well, may affect the economy in only 3 months (May But if there is a double-dip pandemic, it may affect the economy for up to 6 months (Apr-Sep) as a Worse case.

The number of domestic tourists is expected to remain at 81.6 – 98.6 million in the base case where domestic tourism is expected to contract in the three months. Especially in May, before the Sentiment will gradually come back. As a result, the number of tourists in the country for the whole year has decreased from the original estimate of 115.2 million to 98.6 million, worth about 9 billion baht, and if the Worse case occurs, the number of tourists in the country is only 81.6 million. Damage increased to 1.8 billion baht.

While it is estimated that the number of foreign tourists is 0.1 million in the Worse case in the event of a double outbreak. It is expected that the broader plans for foreign tourists that were previously estimated to be achievable in the last quarter of 2021 may not be possible.

Therefore, domestic demand may disappear as much as 9.1-18.5 billion baht, in addition to the impact on travel decisions, domestic consumption and investment sentiment is expected to be affected as well. COMPASS estimates that domestic demand will drop by about 9.1 billion baht from the previous estimate.

And if the outbreak is out of control within three months, domestic demand could be hit as much as 150 billion baht. The impact this time tends to be more severe than the second outbreak in January. This is evident from the large increase in the number of infected people. Causing the government sector to have more intense measures to control the epidemic Which, of course, affects the overall economy Especially the service sector that is likely to recover more slowly, the more slowly recovering

However, the world economy recovered much more clearly. Support for Thai exports to improve This increases GDP growth by 0.3% compared to the previous estimate. Especially the US economy That is expected to grow much better than the previous estimate. From massive stimulus Including the relatively rapid vaccination of the population Which the expansion of the US economy This will be the main driving force for the overall economy and global trade to recover faster than predicted. This will benefit foreign demand and the outlook for Thai exports this year, compared to previous estimates.

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