Mr Poon Panichphiboon, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank, revealed that the atmosphere in the US stock market The US dollar remained in a closed position amid concerns that the Fed could raise interest rates higher and stay at that high level for longer than expected. after the US labor market Still strong and tight (according to the latest CME FedWatch Tool, market players expect the Fed to raise interest rates to 5.25% before dropping to -0.25% at the end of the year) , which has led to a bond yield of 10. the year, the United States Adjusted to a level of 3.64%, pushing technology stocks and growth style stocks to continue to fall (Apple -1.8%, Alphabet -1.8%), causing to the Nasdaq technology stock index down -1.00%; The S&P500 closed -0.61%.
In European stock markets, the STOXX600 index declined -0.78% amid concerns over the possibility of further interest rate hikes by major central banks. which led to technology stocks Europe fell as did the United States (Adyen -4.8, ASML -3.0%) European stocks were also pressured by the decline in brand name stocks (Kering -3,8%, Dior – 2.4%) in amid heated geopolitical tensions between the United States. and China.
in the currency market The greenback continued to gain ground against major currencies, with the Dollar Index (DXY) recently rising to 103.6 amid concerns over the possibility of a Fed rate hike. causing some market players to hold more dollars. (Including reducing or cutting loss from short positions in the dollar) Although the financial market as a whole is in a calm state in terms of risk, the continued rise in the dollar and the US 10 year bond yield has put pressure on gold prices. (The COMEX gold contract for delivery in April) continued to swing close to the level of $ 1,880 per ounce. which we consider Some market players may buy more gold when it falls near the support zone. Such transaction flow has contributed to the baht’s fluctuation and continued depreciation.
For today, in Asia, the market estimates that Australia’s inflation forecast, which is still well above the target of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), will give the RBA the opportunity to raise interest rates from +0.25% to 3.35% this time. And the RBA may continue to signal a rate hike.
Apart from the outcome of the RBA meeting, market players will await the earnings reports of listed companies. including statements from fed officials Specifically, the chairman of the Fed (around 12:40 AM in Thailand) to assess the Fed’s views on the economic outlook. inflation and the direction of monetary policy adjustments After the latest labor market data came out much better than expected.
Regarding the baht trend, we believe that the baht will continue to be pressured to depreciate volatility. of both the appreciation of the dollar Flow of buying gold in short strokes Including the sale of Thai assets by foreign investors.
However, we estimate that market players may wait to follow the statements of Fed officials. especially the Fed chairman made today The continuous devaluation of the baht in the past Initially, the important resistance zone of the baht has moved to the range of 33.75 baht per dollar. After the baht weakened through the zone of 33.50 baht per dollar that we had previously estimated (The next resistance will be 34.00 baht per dollar), which has no additional risk factors. We estimate that the baht may not depreciate far beyond the resistance level. In addition, we expect some exporters to gradually sell the dollar. After the baht turns around to depreciate This will help to slow down the depreciation of the baht to some extent.
However, financial market volatility is still at a high level. makes us look Entrepreneurs should use a variety of financial tools such as options to increase efficiency when hedging against exchange rate risks. Check out the baht frame today. It is expected to be at the level of 33.50-33.80 baht / dollar.
