Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS reveals the open value of the baht at 37.40 baht per dollar “appreciation” is highly volatile due to many uncertainties.

Mr Poon Panichpiboon, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank revealed that the US financial market remains in a risk-on atmosphere (Risk Forward) continuously supported by the prospect of the players of the that market The Fed may not need to continue to accelerate intense interest rates. after the US economic data report Starting to signal a slowdown in the economy, most recently, JOLTS Job Openings fell by more than 1.1 million to 10.1 million, which is worse than expected by the market. reflecting the tendency of the US labor market to be less tight that the market will wait to assess the picture of the US labor market From the important labor market data report on Friday, if the number of nonfarm payrolls increased much less than expected. It may make the market players even more expected. The outlook for market players, who expect the Fed may not need to raise interest rates significantly, continues to boost technology and growth stocks, led by Amazon +4.5%, Microsoft +3.6% , Tesla +2.9% led the technology Nasdaq stock index up +3.3%, as did the S&P500 index, which closed +3.06% Chevron +3.9%, Exxon Mobil +3.6%) on crude oil is another factor supporting US stocks. After market players expected OPEC + to cut production by 2 million barrels per day.

On European equities, Europe’s STOXX600 index jumped more than +3.12%, driven by a strong rally in technology and growth stocks such as Adyen +7.1%, ASML +6.2%, on hopes that central banks would be better off. , European stock markets continued to be supported by gains in luxury stocks such as Dior +6.6%, Hermes +6.1% on hopes that the global economic outlook would not slow down heavily If central banks slow down interest rates

In the Bond market Although market players are beginning to expect that The Fed and other central banks It may not necessarily accelerate the tremendous interest rate. But the atmosphere is open to financial market risks. It also helps support the 10-year bond yield. The US continues to swing near 3.63% (not much higher than the mid-year peak of 3.50%). Until we see clear signs of a reversal of Fed monetary policy direction. This could be due to the US inflation outlook. that slowed down significantly and the labor market picture worsened As a result, the US 10-year bond yield move may look sideways and at risk of rising again. If the economic data is not as bad as expected Market players may wait for bond yields to rise again in a gradual decline from forward buying amid those views The outlook may be on for the world economy next year slowing down more and at risk of going into recession.

on the currency market side The dollar continued to weaken against the major currencies. The dollar index (DXY Index) continued to fall to 110.2 after market players reduced their holdings of the dollar. Amid the market exposure, the dollar was also weighed down by the continued appreciation of the British pound (GBP) to $1.145 per pound. and the euro (EUR) rebounded to 0.998 dollars per euro. including other central banks May seriously slow the acceleration of interest rates supported the price of gold (COMEX gold contract continued to be distributed in December) to rise through the resistance zone to 1,734 dollars per ounce. we expect Profit taking, the increase in gold prices and the flow of profit making transactions may have contributed to the strengthening of the baht.

For today, in the economic data report The market will wait to follow the US economic forecast. Passing the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM Services PMI) in September. The US service sector will continue to expand. This was reflected through the service sector PMI at 56 points (the index above 50 means expansion), driven by the US labor market. that remains strong including continued improvement in consumer confidence The market will also keep an eye on the ADP report on private sector payrolls, which could be an indicator of Friday’s non-farm payrolls. by the expected market Employment in the private sector can increase by about 2 hundred thousand, reflecting the employment conditions in the United States. that’s still strong

on the Thai side We estimate September headline CPI inflation to remain high at around 7.2%, driven by rising prices of goods and services following the economic recovery. In addition, electricity prices rose sharply in September, but headline inflation in Thailand tends to slow. This may cause the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to not worry about inflation as much as other central banks and allow the BOT to gradually raise interest rates by +0.25% each time.

and in addition to the economic data reports mentioned above Market players will wait for the outcome of the OPEC + meeting to see how much the production cuts will be decided. Crude oil prices may continue to rise if OPEC+ decides to cut production by more than expected or by at least 2 million barrels per day.

for the baht trend We estimate that The market’s exposure to pressure on the dollar and the rising gold price is The key factor supporting the appreciation and appreciation of the baht is more than the support we had previously assessed. If the US economic data report today came out worse than expected continuously. It might make the players in the market look different. The Fed may not need to accelerate interest rates. The atmosphere in the financial markets remains open to risks. Pressure on the dollar cannot rise. And the support of the baht may appreciate somewhat or swing sideways near the level of 37.30-37.40 baht per dollar. Because these levels are considered a support zone where importers are waiting for the gradual timing of buying the dollar.

In times of high volatility in the financial market due to the uncertainty of many factors We would recommend traders to use more diversified FX hedging strategies. Especially the use of options, which will help to increase the efficiency of hedges well during heavy volatility in the market. Looking at the baht frame today It is expected to be at 37.25-37.50 baht / dollar.

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