Krungthai-Kasikorn Thai expects inflation in 2023 at 3.0-3.1% The trend is down from the previous year.
Krungthai-Kasikorn Thai expects inflation in 2023 at 3.0-3.1%, down from the previous year. During the first half of the year, inflation is expected to be higher than the Bank of Thailand’s framework. Monetary policy to raise interest rates at least twice in the first half of the year.
Even in the past year, Thailand’s inflation rate hit 6.08%, the highest in 24 years, as a result of rising energy prices. According to the report of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (SorKhor.Nor.), Ministry of Trade. But with the economy tending to slow down from the global economy The direction of the Thai interest rate which is expected to increase to curb that inflation
Krungthai Compass expects headline inflation in 2023 to average 3.1%.
Krungthai Compass research center’s inflation forecast trend expects headline inflation for the year 2023 to average 3.1% from energy prices which tend to remain high continuously. from the increase in electricity prices and remained at an all-time high
It is expected that the average cost of electricity for electricity users (Excluding houses) for the period January-April 2023 will have increased to 5.33 baht per unit from the original 4.72 baht per unit, and fuel prices, especially prices diesel, be at a high level. This is due to the need to collect compensation for the oil fund, which is minus 1.2 billion baht. In addition, the price of basic products tends to increase gradually. according to higher production costs around
Expected H1/66, the Bank of Thailand will gradually raise interest rates at least 2 times
Expected to be in the first half of the year Inflation will be above the BOT’s target range of 1-3% and may be a factor encouraging the MPC to gradually raise the policy rate at least twice in the first half of the year .
Inflation last year was high from higher energy prices.
For 2022, inflation grew at 6.08%, the highest in 24 years, while core inflation stood at 2.51% due to higher cost-push inflation from higher energy. Due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine which affects the retail price of oil and electricity. And the inflation rate in the basic category grew by 2.51%.
Headline inflation in December came in at 5.89 percent, accelerating from 5.55 percent the previous month, in line with analysts’ expectations of 5.9 percent. Of fresh food prices that accelerated 8.91% compared to 8.08% in November following the price of rice, flour and flour products. including fresh vegetables In addition, energy prices accelerated by 14.62% compared to 13.09% in the previous month following the base effect of lower fuel prices in December. 2021
for core inflation (Excluding fresh food and energy) remained stable at 3.23% of the increase in prices of most products, including ready meals. non-alcoholic beverages from sweet water prices public price and entertainment, reading and education categories such as pet food and hotel room rates Although the price of some products has slowed, including cookware. and clothes and shoes
Kasikorn Research Center Thailand’s inflation is expected to be 3.0% this year
The Kasikorn Research Center believes that global and Thai inflation will gradually decrease in 2023. Due to the decrease in commodity prices in the global market.
As for Thailand’s inflation, it will not decrease as fast as the government tends to collect money to increase the liquidity of the oil reserve and therefore domestic diesel prices will not decrease in line with world crude oil prices.
However, it is expected that Thailand will continue to see a continued transfer of costs from operators to consumers. If the product price remains stable at a high level or accelerates higher It may also lead to lower expectations of weak inflation Kasikorn Research Center predicts that Thailand’s inflation in 2023 will be around 3.0%.
During the first half of 2023, the United States and the Eurozone are likely to enter recession. Including the possibility that it will not grow or shrink throughout the year There is an effect
- inflation which has been at a high level for a long time
- US Federal Reserve (FED) and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate hikes.
While China, despite some policy relaxation of COVID measures since December 2022, but demand in China remains weak as consumers are worried about the epidemic. In addition, China’s economy tends to be under pressure for many reasons, such as
- Problems in the real estate sector that have not yet recovered Sales in November continued to decline.
- China’s industrial orders slowed in line with global demand and commodity price pressures.
But there is still a chance that commodity prices will rise. The main factor is the energy crisis. which the Kasikorn Research Center also sees The possibility is low. Even with the suspension of oil imports, the imposition of a Russian oil price ceiling, or the fact that China will lift zero COVID measures and open the country earlier than expected. But the Kasikorn Research Center still sees demand from China increasing. Not enough to drive product prices higher as happened in the first half of the year.
Source: Krung Thai Bank Kasikorn Bank
