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The ‘People’s Choice Day’ for the election of a new president is 50 days away. In a public opinion poll released on the 17th, it was also found that Yoon Seok-yeol, the People’s Strength presidential candidate, regained his approval rating of 40%, and outperformed Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. It is difficult to predict the final winner in haste to such an extent that the candidates with leading approval ratings are different. In particular, Candidate Lee’s approval rating is locked in a box and does not show any significant changes, but Candidate Yoon’s approval rating fluctuates rapidly depending on various issues. For the remaining 50 days, both camps cannot let go of tension as their approval ratings can fluctuate as they are now depending on variables. Experts selected five major variables that will influence public sentiment in the upcoming election: △Youth vote △Seoul public opinion △TV debate △Unification of candidates △Family risk.
◆ Where are the 2030 votes?
One of the biggest observation points in this election is the votes for the 2030 generation. Candidate Yoon’s approval rating in their 20s has soared recently. Candidate Yoon seems to be on an upward trend as he regrouped his support with an election strategy tailored to the clear goals of 2030 men, such as ‘abolition of the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family’. Candidate Lee also made a promise to the ‘hair loss pledge’ proposed by the Youth Election Countermeasures Committee and decided to appear on ‘.Face’, a YouTube-based media that mainly deals with feminist issues on the 19th. to be. Women in their 2030s supported the power of the people relatively less even in the April 7 by-election, and as it was revealed that Kim Kun-hee, CEO of Kobana Contents, Kim Kun-hee, the wife of Candidate Yoon, said, “Living with #MeToo is bleak.” Most likely it won’t come.
◆ Capture Seoul’s public sentiment
Seoul is a barometer of public sentiment and the largest proportion of the population in terms of population distribution, so both sides are working hard. Candidate Lee seems to be struggling to win votes in Seoul, which has turned away from the Democratic Party because of the real estate policy of the Moon Jae-in administration. Candidate Lee also said in a YouTube broadcast on the 7th, “It is said that there was no candidate who lost in Seoul and won the presidential election.” Candidate Lee also announced six policies to promote reconstruction, centered on rationalization of regulations, right after a meeting with residents of old apartments in Sanggye-dong, Nowon-gu, Seoul on the 13th.
The people’s power, which suffered a devastating defeat in the April 15 general election last year, but won the re/by-election last year, is also working hard on Seoul’s vote. On the 16th, they promised to supply 400,000 new housing units in Seoul alone and to prepare 100,000 households as the first home in the station area. Hong Hyung-sik, head of Hangil Research, said, “Seoul’s public sentiment will have the greatest influence on this election, and it is the most important variable.” It will not be easy to capture Seoul’s votes,” he analyzed.
◆ TV debate aftermath
The bilateral TV debate between the two candidates before the Lunar New Year and the presidential debate hosted by the National Election Commission to be held later are also important factors that will determine the direction of the election. In the meantime, Candidate Yoon’s side gave the impression of ‘avoiding debate’ and ‘consulted’, but in the new year, they decided to actively engage in the debate and are currently negotiating with the Democratic Party. Lee Yang-soo, senior spokesperson for the People’s Power Election Response Headquarters, said, “We are clearing up the suspicions of candidate Lee and reorganizing Lee’s ‘change of speech policy’. “It is important for the candidate to show the superiority and competence of logic through the debate, but after the previous presidential TV debates, voters placed more importance on the candidate’s attitude toward the debate,” said an official from the Democratic Party’s election committee. “Considering this, Lee will come into play,” he said.
◆ Will opposition candidates be unified?
The unification with Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People’s Party, is also expected to be an important variable. Candidate Ahn has recently experienced a high streak with his approval rating exceeding the 15% line, but his approval rating seems to have faltered again as Candidate Yoon cleared the party’s mourning. Nevertheless, from the standpoint of Candidate Yoon, he has no choice but to contemplate unification with Ahn, who has at least 10% approval rating, and if candidate Ahn does not have the confidence to get 15% of the election cost compensation, he has no choice but to think about unification.
The Democratic Party is wary of unification between Candidates Yoon and Ahn. A key official in the Democratic Party’s election campaign said, “If the conservative opposition parties unite as one, they may occupy 50 to 60 percent.” Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University said, “If candidate Yoon and Ahn are not unified, it is difficult for both of them to win a game.” However, Yoon Tae-gon, head of the political analysis office at Dermore, who also served as an assistant to Ahn, analyzed, “Unification will not affect the approval rating, but rather the approval rating will affect whether or not it will be unified.”
◆ Family Risk Aftermath
Family risk is also an issue that should be noted for both the opposition and opposition candidates. Candidate Yoon is paying attention to the aftermath of Kim’s various remarks, which were announced through MBC’s ‘Straight’ on the 16th. In the broadcast, CEO Kim made inappropriate remarks related to ‘MeToo’, but there is an aspect that he brushed off the so-called ‘Julie suspicion’ that he worked as a receptionist at a bar. Among conservative supporters, there is talk that Kim’s favorability has increased since the broadcast. However, at the party level, the plan is to approach the reaction with a low attitude rather than flirting. Candidate Lee has previously raised suspicions related to his eldest son, but he is of the view that there is no issue that will become a problem any more.
[김보담 기자 / 성승훈 기자 / 서동철 기자]
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