| Candidates Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon greet each other at the Gangwon Joint Speech (1st Super Week) for the election of candidates for the 20th presidential election of the Democratic Party of Korea held at the Oak Valley Resort Convention Hall in Wonju-si, Gangwon-do on the afternoon of the 12th. 2021.9.12/News 1 © News1 Reporter Koo Yun-seong |
The Honam primary, a watershed that will decide whether to vote in the runoff of the 20th presidential primary of the Democratic Party, begins. Attention is focused on whether Candidate Jae-myung Lee, who is running for the first place with a majority of the cumulative votes, will win in Honam, or whether Candidate Nak-yeon Lee will prepare a stepping stone for advancing to the final vote based on her victory in the vegetable garden.
According to the Democratic Party on the 25th, as a result of the cumulative results of the four regional primary elections held so far and the first round of voting by the National and General Party members, candidate Lee Jae-myung received 53.71% (285,856 votes) and Lee Nak-yeon received 32.46% (172,790 votes).
Of the 2.16 million electoral votes, the number of right party members and delegates in the Honam region account for 10% of the total. The number of rights party members and delegates in Gwangju and Jeollanam-do is 127,480, and the number of rights party members and delegates in Jeollabuk-do is 76,089. Candidates Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon, who have a difference of 110,000 votes, will win the contest depending on who wins the position.
From the perspective of Candidate Jae-myung Lee, the point to watch is whether he will be able to overcome the bad news of ‘Daejang-dong development preferential treatment’ that arose ahead of the Chuseok holiday and secure a majority of the votes. There is a view that there will be a blow because it is a real estate issue that people are interested in, and a view that the impact on the Honam election will be limited as it is a relatively metropolitan area issue.
At the same time, it is interesting to see how the workshop between the two camps over the interpretation of the ‘watermelon remark’ might have affected the public sentiment in Honam during the Chuseok holiday.
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| Lee Nak-yeon (from left), Choo Mi-ae, Kim Doo-kwan, Lee Jae-myung, and Park Yong-jin, the Democratic Party’s presidential candidates, pose during a 100-minute debate held at the MBC building in Sangam-dong, Mapo-gu, Seoul on the afternoon of the 14th. 2021.9.14/News 1 © News1 National Assembly Photo Foundation |
Candidate Nak-yeon Lee will hold the primary in the state of being defeated by Bae Bae, who has resigned as a member of the National Assembly. For Candidate Lee, whose hometown is Yeonggwang, Jeollanam-do, and served as the governor of Jeonnam, the biggest goal is to bring Candidate Jae-myung Lee’s accumulated votes below a majority by winning the Gwangju and Jeollanam-do primary by the largest possible margin.
Candidate Nak-Yeon Lee is pursuing a strategy of lowering the township in order to capture the votes of her hometown. On his Facebook the day before, he appealed for support, saying, “If you need time to make a decision, please decide to go to a runoff vote.”
Another point to watch on this day is the turnout. This is because the parameter increases as the overall turnout increases, so if candidate Lee Jae-myung wins, a stable majority is achieved, and if candidate Lee Nak-yeon wins, a stepping stone for a comeback is laid.
Assuming that the voter turnout of all 200,000 Honam rights party members and delegates is 60% (120,000 votes), and if the 1st and 2nd places are divided into 5 (60,000 votes) and 3 (35,000 votes), respectively, candidate Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon The gap between the candidates may narrow to 80,000 votes, or the gap between the two candidates may increase to 140,000.
Yo Yong-jin, senior spokesperson for the Democratic Party, met with reporters after the highest level on the same day and said, “If you include the ARS vote, it was reported that the turnout in Gwangju, Jeonnam and Jeonbuk regions exceeded 50%.”
Depending on who Honam’s strategic choice to ‘select who will be’ is directed, it seems that whether the Democratic primary will go directly to the main election or go to a runoff will be decided.
A camp official said, “If we win in Gwangju and Jeollanam-do, it could affect the election of the next election and the second round of voting by the National and General Party members.” said
inubica@news1.kr
