On the 6th, the results of a public opinion poll showed that Yoon Seok-yeol, the People’s Strength presidential candidate, outperformed the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung, even though his approval rating was declining.
In the Realmeter survey, 44% of 尹 and 37.5% of Lee
As a result of a Realmeter survey of support for the next presidential candidate among 3,054 adult men and women across the country for five days from November 29 to March 3, commissioned by OhmyNews, Candidate Yoon received 44.0% and Candidate Lee received 37.5%. The ‘Ulsan Agreement’ between Candidate Yoon and People’s Power Representative Lee Jun-seok, made on the evening of the 3rd, was not reflected in this investigation.
Candidate Yoon fell 2.3%p from the previous week, and Candidate Lee rose 0.6%p. The gap in approval ratings between the two candidates narrowed to 6.5 percentage points from the previous week (9.4 percentage points), but Yoon still maintained an edge outside the margin of error. Candidate Yoon also had a higher chance of winning with 47.3%, ahead of Candidate Lee (43.3%).
Looking at the region, Candidate Yoon showed a slight decline in all regions except Gangwon and Jeju, but overall led candidate Lee by around 10 percentage points.
Approval rates by region and age, overall, on the decline… Lee on the rise
Candidate Yoon suffered a slight decline in the metropolitan and central regions, such as Seoul (47.6%·1.2%p↓), Incheon·Gyeonggi (39.6%·0.4%p↓), and Daejeon·Sejong·Chungcheong (41.6%·3.4%p↓). There was an increase in Gangwon (1.6%p↑) and Jeju (41.1%, 7.4%p↑).
In Daegu and North Gyeongsang, where support for conservatives is strong, the figure was 59.7%, down 3.6%p, and 49.0% (0.1%p↓) in Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongnam. Gwangju and Jeolla provinces, which reached the 20% level last week, also fell 4.6%p to 16.8%.
Candidate Lee showed an upward trend in all regions except Chungcheong and Jeju. In Seoul, it rose 1.7%p to 33.3%, and in Incheon and Gyeonggi Province it was 39.6% (0.4%p↑). On the other hand, it decreased in Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong (36.7%, 1.8%p↓) and Jeju (37.6%, 15.0%p↓).
Gangwon (28.8%·1.8%p↑), Daegu·Gyeongbuk (22.6%·0.8%p↑), and Busan·Ulsan·Gyeongbuk (32.6%·0.5%p↑) showed a slight increase, and Jeolla also maintained a solid support of 64.9% (4.5%p↑).
Looking at the trend of approval ratings by age, candidate Yoon showed a general decline in all age groups except those in their 30s and 60s. On the other hand, this candidate showed an upward trend in all age groups except those in their 40s and 60s.
In the 2030 generation, who are the ‘swing boaters’, the successes of Candidate Yoon and Candidate Lee were mixed. Candidate Yoon was 12.4%p ahead of Candidate Lee in the downtrend in his twenties, but in his thirties, he was 1.3%p lower than Candidate Lee in the uptrend.
Candidate Yoon was 37.8% (6.3%p↓) in their 20s, 38.1% in their 30s (1.4%p↑), 33.9% in their 40s (0.9%p↓), 40.8% in their 50s (3.1%p↓), and 60 59.1% (0.6%p↑) for adults, and 59.3% (6.2%p↓) for those over 70 years of age.
Candidate Lee was 25.4% in their 20s (1.7%p↑), 39.4% in their 30s (3.1%p↑), 53.4% in their 40s (0.4%p↓), 46.7% in their 50s (1.1%p↑), and 28.2 in their 60s. % (3.6%p↓), and over 70 years old 26.7% (1.6%p↑).
KSOI survey report: 尹 41.2%, Lee 37.9%
While the gap in approval ratings between Candidate Yoon and Candidate Lee narrowed in the Realmeter poll, the gap between the two candidates widened slightly in the Korea Social Opinion Institute (KSOI) survey released today.
As a result of the KSOI’s survey on the approval rating of the next presidential election candidate conducted on the 3rd and 4th by TBS for 1007 voters over the age of 18 nationwide, Candidate Yoon recorded 41.2%, leading Candidate Lee (37.9%) by 3.3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error. . Candidate Yoon fell 0.6%p from the previous week, and Candidate Lee fell 1.1%p.
Candidate Shim followed with 4.1%, Ahn with 3.2%, and former Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon with 1.7%. ‘Other candidates’ accounted for 2.6%, ‘no candidate to support’ 7.5%, and ‘don’t know’ 1.9%.
In the KSOI survey, Candidate Yoon and Candidate Lee had a close battle within the margin of error for the third week. Candidate Lee pursued candidate Yoon by 0.5 percentage points in the November 22 survey, but the gap is widening again, with 2.8 percentage points on the 29th of the same month and 3.3 percentage points this week. The ‘Ulsan Agreement’ that took place on the night of the 3rd was reflected in this investigation.
尹, in the 2030 generation, the margin of error was reversed in 5 weeks
Also, looking at the age group, Candidate Yoon showed a marked decline in the 2030 generation, allowing Lee to reverse the margin of error within 5 weeks. It is analyzed that the conflict with Lee, who is supported by the 2030 generation, is a factor in this aspect.
Candidate Yoon was 25.1% in their 20s (13.6%p↓), 35.2% in their 30s (2.3%p↓), 27.8% in their 40s (0.5%p↑), 41.1% in their 50s (5.3%p↑), and over 60 years old. 62.2% (3.3%p↑) was recorded.
This candidate was 25.6% in their 20s (2.1%p↑), 41.2% in their 30s (7.1%p↑), 57.0% in their 40s (1.7%p↑), 46.6% in their 50s (4.4%p↓), and over 60 years old. 25.6% (5.9%p↓).
Both Yoon and Lee showed a downward trend in Seoul, Gyeonggi and Incheon. Candidate Yoon was 41.4% (2.9%p↓) in Seoul, leading candidate Lee (35.2%, 0.8%p↓) by 6.2%p across the margin of error, but the KSOI survey immediately after candidate Yoon was confirmed as the People’s Power presidential candidate (November 8), the gap has significantly narrowed compared to 19.5%p ahead.
In Gyeonggi and Incheon, it was a close battle with Candidate Yoon 39.8% (2.4%p↓) and Candidate Lee 38.9% (1.8%p↓).
In Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam, Candidate Yoon (43.9%, 4.4%p↓) also showed a downward trend, and Candidate Lee (36.6%, 5.0%p↑) showed an upward trend, but Yoon took a lead by 7.3%p, out of the margin of error. In the Honam region, Candidate Lee fell 7.4%p to 58.2%, and Candidate Yoon rose 8.2%p to 25.0%.
Middle class, support 43.3%… Lee support 36.8%
Among the moderate respondents, Candidate Yoon 43.4%, Candidate Lee 36.8%, Candidate Ahn 3.6%, Candidate Shim 2.5%, and Candidate Kim 2.4% appeared in that order.
In addition, when asked whether they would continue to support the candidate they currently support until the voting day, 73.3% of the respondents answered, “I will continue to support it,” a decrease of 7.7%p from the previous week. 23.1% (6.9%p↑) of the response “may change”.
Responses to “keep support” were particularly positive for those in their 20s (46.6%, 18.4%p↓), Seoul (74.4%, 10.1%p↓), Gwangju and Jeolla (74.0%, 9.3%p↓), and students (35.0%, 28.8). %p↓), progressive groups (75.9%·12.5%p↓), and middle class (71.1%·9.2%p↓) showed a large drop.
The response to “keep supporting” by political party was slightly lower among the People’s Power supporters (79.9%, 8.4%p↓) than the Democratic Party supporters (83.6%, 4.0%p↓).
“Regime change” 51.5%, “Re-creation of government” 36.6%… 5.9%p tea
Regarding the ‘characteristic of the next presidential election’, 36.6% said “re-creation of government” and 51.1% said “replacement of government”. The difference between the two responses was 14.5%p, an increase of 9.8%p from the survey two weeks ago.
The Real Meter survey conducted a random call through a random sampling frame in parallel with wireless phone interview (8%), wireless (82%) and landline (10%) automatic answering method, wireless phone (90%), landline phone (10%). It was carried out in a hanging method. The response rate was 6.9% and the sampling error was ±1.8%p at the 95% confidence level.
The KSOI survey was conducted in an automatic response method (100%) using a wireless phone with a secure number. The response rate was 7.6% and the sampling error was ±3.1%p at the 95% confidence level.
For a detailed overview and information on public opinion polls, please refer to the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee.