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Liberal Democratic Party House of Representatives election better than expected Expert: Japan’s new prime minister test has just begun
Author: Pan Yinru
The results of the Japanese House of Representatives election announced in the early morning of November 1st local time showed that the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party, which were jointly ruling, won the absolute majority of seats in the House of Representatives.
Among the 465 seats, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party won a total of 293 seats. This result significantly exceeded the 233 “passing line” set by Japanese Prime Minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party Fumio Kishida before the election. Regarding this result, Kishida said: “This represents (the Liberal Democratic Party) has been recognized by the Japanese people.”
Among them, the Liberal Democratic Party won 261 seats, a decrease of 15 seats from the election results four years ago; the Komeito Party, which was in power, won 32 seats, an increase of 3 seats. As for the opposition parties, the largest opposition party, the Cadet Party, won 96 seats, a decrease of 13 seats; the Japan Restoration Council won 41 seats, making it the third largest party in the House of Representatives; the National Democratic Party and the Communist Party of Japan won 11 seats and 10 seats respectively; Linghe New Party And the Social Democratic Party won 3 seats and 1 seat respectively.
According to Japanese media statistics, the voter turnout rate in this election was 55.95%, which was 2 percentage points higher than the 2017 House of Representatives election.
Professor Chen Zilei, vice president of the National Japanese Economic Association and director of the Japan Economic Center of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, told Yicai.com that the Liberal Democratic Party’s victory in the House of Representatives is expected. At the moment, the victory of the Liberal Democratic Party can be described as occupying the right time, place and people.”
They encounter “Waterloo”
Elections for the House of Representatives of the Japanese Diet are held every four years, and an electoral system that combines a small constituency system and a proportional representation system is adopted. There are 289 small and medium constituencies with 465 seats, representing 176 proportionally. In the small constituency, voters directly vote on the candidates, and the one who gets the most votes is elected; proportional representation is where voters vote on the political parties, and according to the number of votes, the parties are allocated seats in a certain proportion.
This election is also the first nationwide election held in Japan against the backdrop of the epidemic. Fortunately, after many rounds of emergency, the current epidemic in Japan has been effectively controlled. Data compiled by the Japan Broadcasting Association shows that on October 31, there were 229 new cases nationwide in Japan, and there were zero new cases in many places.
“This is Kishida’s second victory in a short period of time.” Chen Zilei concluded. In the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election at the end of September, Kishida defeated Taro Kono, the previously popular Minister of Administrative Reform, and succeeded Yoshihide Suga as the 100th Prime Minister of Japan.
Although the Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling partners have performed better than expected in the House of Representatives reelection, they still can’t conceal people’s dissatisfaction with the Liberal Democratic Party. Defeated. According to Japanese media reports, Kam Liming lost to the candidate of the Cadet Party in the constituency of Kanagawa Prefecture. This is the first time the current secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party has been defeated in an electoral district since the founding of the Liberal Democratic Party in 1955. At present, Kam Liming has conveyed his intention to resign to Kishida, and Kishida said that he will make judgments based on the results of the entire election within the party.
In addition to Amriaki, Ishihara Nobuaki Ishihara, the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party, his younger brother Hirotaka Ishihara, and Takuya Hirai, the Minister of the Digital Office under the cabinet of Yoshihide Suga, were all unsuccessful. Chen Zilei believes that although the focus of the debate in this election is the anti-epidemic and economic policies, it ultimately reflects the voters’ zero tolerance for corruption. The above-mentioned unsuccessful parliamentarians have been exposed to relevant corruption scandals more or less by the Japanese media before.
“After Gan Liming loses the election, who will succeed him as the secretary-general is also one of the things to watch.” Chen Zilei said, “It is certain that through this election, Kishida’s influence in the party has increased. The key lies in factions. How to compromise between.”
As for the opposition party, Chen Zilei said that due to the lack of leaders with social influence and a persuasive political program, the opposition party suffered a disastrous defeat in this re-election, “this also provides opportunities for the ruling coalition.”
The next year is the key
After winning the trust of the Japanese people, Chen Zilei believes that Kishida has won a good start, “the implementation of follow-up policies is the key.” In his view, the first thing is to completely control the epidemic in Japan, and then build on this. To achieve economic recovery. “Especially the result of the’income redistribution policy’ that Kishida previously emphasized is worthy of attention.” Chen Zilei said, “There will be elections for the Senate next year. In fact, there is not much time left for him.”
“New Capitalism,” which focuses on economic growth and redistribution, has always been Kishida’s main economic card. Kishida advocated the conversion of “neo-liberalism” since the former prime ministers Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe, realizing a “virtuous circle of growth and distribution”, and made the “distribution” under growth a policy highlight. The Japanese people also have high hopes for this, hoping that the new Kishida government can “make real moves” on the issue of alleviating the gap between the rich and the poor. Regrettably, in the previous parliamentary defense, Kishida obviously retreated, stating that the word “financial income taxation” would be deleted from the Liberal Democratic Party convention, that is, no tax increase would be imposed on the high-income class.
In this regard, Chen Zilei said: “How can income redistribution be maintained if taxes are not imposed on the wealthy? The original intention of Kishida’s policy is to expand the middle class, but it may eventually lead to the expansion of the poor.”
At present, the Kishida government has not given details on the above-mentioned policy. Kishida has asked its think tank team to give specific measures on priority issues in early November. In Chen Zilei’s view, the future depends on whether the Japanese people can accept this policy and whether they feel the dividends of this policy. By then, they will make another choice in the Senate election next year.
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Editor in charge: Qi Qiqi
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