which is in the minutes of the latest Fed meeting Even if the Fed committee sends a signal to prepare. arouse interest continue this year to fight inflation However, all the directors agreed that the increase in the interest rate should be slowed down. to reduce the impact on the economy This means that this year the Fed will not raise interest rates as strongly as last year, causing dollar bill it began to depreciate relative to other major currencies
in the meantime baht benefiting from a flow of funds that tends to flow in continuously The stock market and the bond market After the fundamentals of the Thai economy, it still looks better than many countries, with foreigners returning to buy last year .Thai StocksFor the first time in 5 years, more than 200 billion baht and buy more than 46 billion baht into the bond market.
in addition baht Also supported by the busy tourism sector It is considered another main engine for bringing income to the country. Recently, there is good news that China is preparing to fully open the country on January 8.
Causing the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to rush out to raise the child raising the target of foreign tourists this year to 25 million from the previous 20 million afterChina opens the countryfaster than expected
even though baht He will come back to strengthen wages since the beginning of the year But this way he cannot last the whole year. There is still a chance that the baht will fluctuate like last year. which depends on many factors including the world economy with the potential for a recession Fed interest rate increases Until the COVID situation after Thailand opened up the country
But in the short term, appreciation of the baht has become another interesting investment theme recently by Dao Guarantees (Thailand) states that
Industries that will benefit from the appreciation of the baht include:
1. airlines Its cost structure is about 60% in dollars, and when the baht strengthens, the costs will decrease, and the AAV is the biggest choice, and the company has about $1 billion in dollar-denominated debt. For every 1 baht appreciation, the company will earn about 1 billion baht in foreign exchange earnings.
It has also benefited from a steady recovery in international passenger numbers. As a result, the performance trend of the fourth quarter of 2022 has a chance to turn profitable for the first time in 13 quarters.
2. power plants Because there are many dollar loans. However, such transactions are accounting transactions only. No impact on cash flow
Choose BGRIM as the best choice The company has about $ 350 million in debt, for every baht appreciation. There will be gains from exchange rates of about 350 million baht. As for the 4th quarter 2022 earnings forecast, a QoQ recovery is expected in recognition of positive factors, adjusting the Ft for the full quarter.
3. Energy group There is a great choice, TOP, which has 78% of the total debt in dollars. The research department estimates that, when including the hedging effect, there will be a profit from the exchange rate of about 400-500 million baht for every 1 baht appreciation.
Fourth quarter 2022 earnings are likely to recover QoQ due to the crack spread of oil products and crude oil prices (crack spread) and lower stock losses.
4. IT product sales group SYNEX is like Top Pick because it imports goods using dollars. when the baht appreciates Product costs will be reduced. As a result, the gross margin has improved.
The groups that will be affected by the appreciation of the baht include electronics, food and agriculture as most of their income comes from exports.
Phatthanasin Nomura Securities Noting that groups that benefit from the appreciation of the baht are groups with foreign debt and import groups, viz
- Airlines (AAV, BA)
- Power plants (GPSC, GULF, BGRIM)
- Energy (PTTGC, TOP, IVL, PTT)
- Industrial Estate Group (AMATA, WHA)
- Import group (TOA, ICHI, SABINA, JUBILE, JMART, COM7, SYNEX, SIS)
Featured Stocks namely AAV to benefit from the baht appreciation The opening of China Furthermore, the slowdown in oil prices is a positive factor for GPSC, GULF and ICHI.
DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) that the baht that appreciated the most in 8 months was good for stocks that imported raw materials and products from abroad, such as TVO, IT, COM7, JMART, SPVI, SIS, CPW and groups with different debts in the country It will record earnings from foreign exchange, such as power plants BGRIM, GPSC, GULF, EGCO, WHA, WHAUP, AMATA, BA, AAV.
