Lu Yuren – Take advantage of the October window to speculate and rebound | High Financial Tea | Daily Headline

The US Dow Jones stock index rose 1,600 points for two consecutive days, driving the recovery of Hong Kong stocks. Yesterday, the 18,000 point mark was regained in one fall. The Hang Seng Index fell through a number of psychological hurdles one after the other in September. Due to oversold conditions, the turnover on Monday and the first trading day of October was only more than 60 billion yuan, indicating that the sales force has started to dry up, waiting for a rebound opportunity. Outside the US, the purchasing managers’ index in September recorded 50.9, which was significantly lower than the 52.8 in August, the market took this opportunity to speculate on interest to peak next year , becoming an opportunity for friends to counterattack. Hong Kong stocks wanted to bounce back but could not find an excuse. In the end, they all had to rely on large foreign investors to get a decent recovery. The Hang Seng Index increased by 1,008 points in one day.
Large stocks can be consumed in one day

Global asset markets suffered heavy losses in the third quarter, and Credit Suisse, a major European-owned bank, is said to be financially unstable. A tea friend in Central said with a smile that this year’s investment is easy to make, and as long as you are brave enough to go short, you will win on both sides. However, short selling is only a few people, and most people tend to hold it. Even if the big bank like Credit Suisse, its investment performance this year has been very moderate .Some people say his investment banking business doesn’t do it. well, so the short selling game is easier said than done. Short selling is easier said than done. One is that you can lose money infinitely with short positions. Unless you are a person with a highly developed pituitary gland looking for stimulation, you may not be under pressure. The Dow Jones index has risen 1600 points in the last two days If you buy 3 times For investors who sell short ETFs, the volatility is scary, and there is a good chance they will give up and close their positions.

US stocks had a strong start to October, taking advantage of the seemingly cooling data, but there are ways to catch up. As in the past, Wall Street’s big players will take advantage of the window between the Fed’s two interest rate meetings to speculate. After the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in September, the next interest rate meeting will be in November There is no reason for the big players to continue to fall and fall in any market during this period, and there is no reason to stop trading and not hyping food, normal. Inflation in the United States is strong, and the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in a row to show confidence in fighting inflation. The short-term outlook will not change easily. Analysts are not too optimistic for now. In generally, the rebound of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in October is based on the rebound after a fall. Going forward, we must first see if US core inflation is under control in September.

The Hang Seng Index climbed more than 1,000 points in one day and closed at 18,000 points, stabilizing at 18,087 points, up 1,008 points. The HSCEI closed at 6,224 points, up 367 points, the KSE Index rose 258 points to close at 3,685. The market turnover was over 100 billion, with a turnover of 105.4 billion. While US stocks led the overall rebound in Asian markets, US-owned Morgan Stanley issued a report, raising its rating on emerging and Asia-Pacific markets Quiet (except Japan) to “overweight”, pointing to a decline in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. 40% of its highs.%, surpassing the average level of the past 10 bear markets, and also sees a “capital sell-off” in the market, believes that a bottom is being formed, and described the stock that emerging and Asia-Pacific markets as “a lot of cut wood.” The bear market is close to or has bottomed. “It’s time to plant saplings for the next cycle.” Among them, the CSI 300 index will target 4,270 points in the middle of next year, with a possible increase of 12% The most pessimistic point is 16,000 points; the national index target is 6,550 points, the most optimistic point is 8,000 points, and the most pessimistic point is 5,430 points.

Whether the market has bottomed out cannot be judged by the performance of a single day or single data market. As for whether to “plant saplings” or not, it depends on whether you have the strength or not. Without strength, you will have to pay a price, and the psychological pressure will be very painful. However, if you have the strength to pay the price, you should store the goods slowly. If you encounter a rebound, you can wait for the opportunity to eat Hu. Take yesterday as an example, even if there are many of large stocks, there are many rebounds that are enough to eat Hu in one day.

The technology and Internet stocks sector performed admirably, rebounding more than 5%. Alibaba (9988) rose more than 8% to close at 84.2 yuan; Meituan (3690) and NetEase (9999) also rose 8% to close at 174.9 yuan and 127.3 yuan respectively;; Jingdong (9618) rose 10% to close at 213 yuan; Tencent (700) bounced 6% to close at 279 yuan.

Stabilizing sterling and strengthening sterling-related stocks. HSBC (005) rose 6% to close at 42.65 yuan; Standard Chartered (2888) rose 7% to close at 52 yuan; Prudential (2378) rose nearly 10% to close at 84.55 yuan. The rest of BYD (1211) was favored by the big banks Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley, and the stock price rose by 9%; Ping An Insurance (2318) rose nearly 10% to close at 41.1 yuan, all of which are large stocks that are brave enough to buy goods at a low price and can eat immediately.
The National Day holiday is driving mainland consumer stocks

According to internal media reports, during the long National Day holiday, tourism and consumption increased, Among them, Sichuan scenic spot received a total of 4.69 million tourists in the first three days. Shares related to tourism and consumer stocks performed well. Haidilao (6862) rose 8% to close at 16.36 yuan, Jiu Maojiu (9922) rose 15% to close at 16.6 yuan. After being suspended for two years, the Beijing Marathon will resume on November 6. This event is one of the biggest events in Beijing after the Winter Olympics. Li Ning (2331) rose 10% to close on 66.8 yuan; Anta (2020) rose 10.5%, closing at 91.9 yuan. Since the cumulative decline of Hong Kong stocks is so great, it may rise again in the short term, but the chances of the market rebounding in one breath are not high.
Jin Riku


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