Xinhua News Agency reporters Wei Yukun and Wei Hongyi
The Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data on May 31. In May, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 48.8%, 54.5 % and 52.9%, 0.4, 1.9 and 1.5 percentage points lower than last month, the level of economic prosperity has decreased, and the base for recovery and development still needs to be consolidated.
The recovery and expansion of demand is the key to the ongoing recovery of the current economy. The CPC Central Committee Political Bureau meeting held on April 28 noted that “the current improvement in my country’s economic performance is mainly restorative, the endogenous driving force is not strong, and demand is still insufficient.” The first meeting of the 20th Central Finance and Economics Committee held on May 5 emphasized that it “organically combines the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the innovation-driven development strategy.”
Judging from the development of the manufacturing industry, the problem of insufficient demand in the market is still evident. In May, the new order index was 48.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, running below 50% for two consecutive months. According to the enterprise survey, the proportion of enterprises that reflect insufficient market demand is 58.8%.
“Insufficient demand in the market has led to a slowdown in the production activities of enterprises, and the purchase of raw materials by enterprises has decreased correspondingly.” Wen Tao, an expert at the China Logistics Information Center, said in May that the production index was 49.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
According to expert analysis, as a leading indicator of economic activity, the decline in the manufacturing PMI shows that the economic recovery momentum is insufficient. However, given the changes in the comprehensive sub-index, the new momentum has stabilize and lift. Business expectations are relatively optimistic, and there is a foundation for continued recovery.
——The level of prosperity of some key industries has increased, and the replacement of old drivers of growth with new ones has been accelerated.
In May, PMIs for the equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods industries were 50.4%, 50.5% and 50.8% respectively, 0.3, 1.2 and 1 percentage point higher than the previous month, showing the extent different expansion from the previous month.
“Judging from the index trend since this year, the traditional basic raw material industry is in a continuous downward trend, while new kinetic energy such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintains a steady upward trend, and kinetic conversion old and new. energy accelerates.” said Wen Tao.
—— Enterprise cost pressures continue to ease, and market confidence is generally stable.
Affected by factors such as the recent continued decline in the prices of some bulk commodities and weak market demand, in May, the purchase price index of major raw materials was 40.8%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the previous month, and dropped to a recent low. In addition, the proportion of enterprises that reflect high logistics costs continues to decrease.
In May, the production and business activity expectation index was 54.1%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period the previous year, and remained above 54% for five consecutive months. In terms of industries, among the 21 industries surveyed, the indices of production expectations and business activity of 16 industries are in the expanding range.
Since the beginning of this year, with the rapid and stable transformation of epidemic prevention and control, faster recovery of production and living order, and the continuous efforts to stabilize investment, promote consumption and stabilize employment, the non-manufacturing industry, in especially the service industry, has accelerated its recovery and development. In May, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.5%, which was 1.9 percentage points lower than the previous month, but the index level was still relatively high.
Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the business activity index of the service industry from February to April this year was in a relatively high boom range for three consecutive months, amounting to 6.7 percentage points in the same period. last year.
From an industry perspective, driven by the effect of the “May 1st” festival, tourism and offline consumption are relatively active. In May, business activity indices for rail transport, air transport, accommodation, catering and industries all others in the relatively high prosperity range of above 55%; The new kinetic energy industry of the service industry is developing well, and the business activity indices of industries such as telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services are all in the high-level prosperity range above 60%.
Enterprises in the service industry remain optimistic about the market’s recovery and development. In May, the service industry business activity expectation index was 60.1%, maintaining a high level of prosperity, and all industries surveyed were in the expansion range.
High level recall of the construction industry. In May, the construction industry business activity index was 58.2%, 5.7 percentage points lower than the previous month, but still in a relatively high economic range. In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectations index is 62.1%, which remains in the high-level boom range above 60%.
In May, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.9% Although it declined somewhat, it continued to remain in the boom range, indicating that the production and overall operation of Chinese enterprises continues to recover and develop.
“The next step should be to focus on implementing all aspects of strengthening infrastructure construction comprehensively, significantly strengthening the role of driving government investment in investment in society as a whole, continuously improving the impact of domestic demand expansion policy, and relying on a general recovery of demand to stimulate a general economic recovery.” State Council Development Research Center Researcher Zhang Liqun said.
Editor: Wu Jiahong