On the 19th, a handicap grade race that gets rough at the Hanshin RacecourseMermaid S(GIII, turf 2000m) will be held. It is a race where the runaway of light handheld horses stands out anyway, and it becomes a big melee every year.
This time, we will look at the jockey data that you are interested in based on the Mermaid S past data after 2007 after the Hanshin course renovation and the Hanshin Shiba 2000m data after 2007.
◆[Mermaid Stakes 2022 Forecast / Overtake Diagnosis]Highly rated “A” for the assumed “lower popularity” explosion hole “The sign of attack is perfect”
■ Kota Fujioka Jockey is a head candidate
Of the jockeys riding this year’s Mermaid Stakes, 14 have had riding experience since 2007. The jockey data for each jockey is as follows.
As you can see from the quorum in the table, the data that lacks the decisive factor has been calculated. Since 2007, there are multiple pairsKota FujiokaJockeys alone, many jockeys have been sluggish in terms of quorum.
From the balance between the order of arrival and popularity, it seems that Ryo Takakura may have one shot, but with a past consecutive rate of 0% and a double win rate of 10%, it cannot be pushed on the data.
From this data, we will take up Kota Fujioka jockey who will win 3 wins during the aggregation period. The jockey won the 2010 Brightia Pulse (3rd most popular 1st place), 2014 Dia de la Madre (1st most popular 1st place), and 2015 Chateau Blanche (8th most popular 1st place) for 3 consecutive riding opportunities. I have made it a good run with free tactics such as leading, inserting, and driving.
In some cases, such as the 2019 Dancer (4th most popular 11th place), they lost in the order of big finishes, but it can be said that they are indispensable jockeys in this heavy prize. In addition, you can find data that the winning percentage increases to 66.7% with[2-0-0-1]for[Kota Fujioka Jockey]x[3 wins in the previous race].
Strangely, the jockey straddles this yearStable Ask(Female 4, Ritto / Yoshito Yahagi stables) is a racehorse in the previous race with 3 wins, so if you are aiming for it, your head is recommended.
◆[Mermaid Stakes 2022 Forecast / Anoma Analyze Vol.2]Assumed odds 2-digit planet “Strong end legs” will produce turbulence?
■ Pick up 5 jockeys from the results of Hanshin Shiba 2000m
From here, let’s look at the data of Hanshin Shiba 2000m.
Straddle popular horses in Mermaid StakesShinichiro AkiyamaJockey,Yuga KawadaJockey,Mirai IwataJockeys are difficult to judge with past data alone, so it may be useful to check the data with a larger denominator.In addition, it can be judged from the table that the quorum is excellent.Yuichi KitamuraJockey,Ryuji WadaWe will also talk about jockeys.
First of all, the most popular the day beforeThrough Seven SeasShinichiro Akiyama jockey straddling (female 4, Miho / Tomohito Ozeki stables). Although the balance between popularity and order of arrival is not bad, the win rate is as low as 4.0% and the concordance rate is as low as 12.1%, and both the win recovery rate and the double win recovery rate are low. It’s hard to say that it’s excellent in terms of data because the winning percentage and the quorum rate are even lower when riding a mare.
Next, the 8th most popular the day beforeCravelLet’s take a look at the jockey Yuichi Kitamura straddling (female 5, Ritto / Shogo Yasuda stables). Jockey Yuichi Kitamura has a 2% higher quorum than Ryusei Sakai, who has the same popularity, and can be expected to run almost as popular.
Also, if you focus on[Hanshin Shiba 2000m]x[Yuichi Kitamura Jockey]x[Special Battle]the quorum rate will increase to 25.4% with[8-8-5-42]. It is[0-0-0-6]in the essential Mermaid S, but it is a jockey that I want to keep in the data.
Furthermore, the 9th most popular the day beforeWinmightyRyuji Wada jockey riding on (female 5, Ritto, Tadao Igarashi stables). The jockey has the same grade as Yuichi Kitamura and is a good performer.
If you look closely at the data, when you are riding the 1st to 5th most popular rides, the concordance rate will rise to 37.8% at[25-23-18-61]. If Winmighty is recommended within the 5th popularity on the day, it’s a buy.
And the second most popular the day beforeRuby CasablancaMirai Iwata, a jockey who straddles (Ritto, Naosuke Sugai stables), is generally sluggish considering the popularity he carries on this stage. It may be difficult to find a combination that you can buy, and it may be appropriate to wait and see.
The last is the 3rd most popular the day beforeSoft fluteYuga Kawada jockey straddling (female 5, Ritto / Takashi Saito stables). He is the most reliable jockey in the Hanshin Shiba 2000m, and only one person is missing the number.
Especially when limited to[Hanshin Shiba 2000m]x[Yuga Kawada Jockey]x[Most Popular]the concordance rate increased to 61.9% at[35-17-15-17]. The double win rate is a surprising 79.8%, so if it is the most popular on this stage, it seems good to think that it is a solid axis.
This is the jockey data that Mermaid S is interested in.From the past data of Mermaid SKota FujiokaFrom the data of the jockey, Hanshin Shiba 2000m, when it was recommended to be the most popularYuga KawadaWe recommend the jockey as a noteworthy jockey.
▼ Other data forecasts
◆[Mermaid Stakes 2022 Forecast / Data Strategy-Part 1]Anxiety factor of “0% consecutive rate” for soft flute One of the most popular is “Over 80% of betting ticket rate”
◆[Mermaid Stakes 2022 Forecast / Data Strategy-Part 2]Candidate for “Messenger of Disturbance” is Ano Good Blood Horse What is “100% betting ticket rate” that will be a tailwind?
Mermaid Stakes 2022 Expected Column List
▼ Overtake diagnosis
◆[Diagnosis of overtaking]Highly rated “A” for the assumed “lower popularity” explosion hole “The sign of attack is perfect”
◆[Diagnosis of overtaking]Highest rating “S” that surpasses soft flute
◆[Diagnosis of overtaking]”A” rating for the most popular corner of power “Surely better condition than previous run”
◆[Diagnosis of overtaking]”B” evaluation for Cravel with the highest performance “It is hard to say that it is perfect” even though it seems that there is no physical problem
▼ Anoma forecast
◆[Anoma Analyze Vol.1]To win the first prize in the group race with the amount of blind spots around the assumed “8 popularity” on your side
◆[Anoma Analyze Vol.2]Is it possible to produce a turbulence with the planet “strong end legs” with assumed odds of 2 digits?
◆[Anoma Analyze Vol.3]The delicacy of “falling in popularity” in the previous run defeat “There is no difference from the top team as much as Shimouma’s reputation”
◆[Dangerous popular horses]Achievements in one of the most popular horses are evaluated as “erased”.
▼ Other data trends for the past 10 years
◆[Frame order]Soft flute is 2nd frame 3rd, “trial” with 0% win rate against popular horses
◆[Pedigree tendency]A hole combination with a single recovery value of “300” aimed at in a turbulent race of handicap and mare
◆[Leg quality tendency]”Fastest climb” is a good result Pay attention to the results at Hanshin 2000m
◆[Previous Rote]There is no Pearl S group with 5 wins in the last 10 years.
◆[Popularity trend]1 Handicap grade races that cannot be won by popularity Pay attention to odds in melee races
Unicorn Stakes 2022 Data Column List
◆[Unicorn Stakes 2022 Forecast / Frame Order / Jockey Data]What is the horse you should aim for from the graph data of the past 10 years?
◆[Unicorn Stakes 2022 Forecast / Previous Rote]What horse should you aim for from the data graph of the past 10 years in motion?
◆[Unicorn Stakes 2022 Forecast / Popularity Trend]What horse should you aim for from the graph data of the past 10 years?
Daisuke Ito ● “UMAJIN.net” editorial department
Born in Akita prefecture. After working for a sports-related book publisher and a horse racing specialty newspaper, he is currently in charge of writing and horse racing data analysis at UMAJIN .net. In “SPREAD”, we will take up notable horses and jockeys from “horse body analysis” with strong subjective elements and “jockey data” which is the accumulation of objective data.