Encouraged by climate change, international travel, and trade, it is intended that outbreaks of vector-borne diseases will increase in much of Europe over the coming years – and not just in the moderate countries around the Mediterranean.
Even areas previously affected at higher and higher levels, including some parts of northern Europe, could potentially increase outbreaks unless action is taken to improve surveillance and data sharing and to monitor t environmental and climate precursors, as well as other preventive measures.
"Climate change is not the only or even the main driver of the increase in vector-borne diseases across Europe, but is one of many factors in globalization, socio-economic development, urbanization, and t an extensive land use change that needs to be launched to limit the import and spread of these diseases, "said Jan Semenza, lead author of the study published in the Journal of the European Association of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.
According to Giovanni Rezza, the project's principal researcher, the reality is that the longer season will increase the seasonal window for the potential spread of vector-borne diseases and would favor larger outbreaks.
"We need to be prepared to deal with these tropical infections. Lessons from recent outbreaks of the West Nile virus in North America and chikungunya in the Caribbean and Italy show the importance of assessing the risks of future disease borne diseases. Prepare events for future outbreaks, "said Rezza.
As part of the study, the authors also warn that, due to the complex interrelationship between different drivers (heating and international travel temperatures), weather sensitive pathogens, and climate change adaptation, it is difficult to predict future disease burden.
Global warming of mosquitoes, ticks, and other disease-bearing insects, has been allowed to adapt to different seasons, and interfere with new territories across Europe over the last decade – with dengue outbreaks in France and France. Croatia, malaria in Greece, West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe, and chikungunya virus in Italy and France.
It is noteworthy that the authors say that this may not be the best of life. "Mediterranean Europe is a part-time tropical region, where competent vectors like the Tiger mosquito have already been established," said Rezza.
Warmer and wetter conditions could provide wonderful conditions for the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which spreads the dengue and chikungunya viruses, to breed and expand across large parts of Europe with their t including the south and east of the United Kingdom and central Europe.
Previously, transmission was predominantly only in tropical and subtropical regions because temperatures freeze the mores and eggs of the mosquito, but the longer hot seasons can enable albopictus to survive and spread across Europe within the years. , researchers say.
The European climate is already suitable for transmission of Lyme borreliosis and ticket borne encephalitis circulating with ticks (mainly Ixodes ricinus) – with about 65,000 cases of Lyme borreliosis per year in the European Union, and a 400 per cent increase in reported cases EIA in European endemium areas for the past 30 years (partly due to improved surveillance and diagnosis).
In the future, warmer winter temperatures, longer growing seasons, and warmer warmer summers could make conditions more favorable for ticks and increase the range of host populations, the authors say. Climate change models suggest that by 2040-2060 there may be 3.8 per cent growth in the habitat of Ixodes ricinus in Europe, and the Scandinavian countries are expected to be at risk.
In addition, improved climatic conditions for sandy sand – the main carrier of Leishmaniasis – could extend its geographical range to southern parts of the United Kingdom, France and Germany by the end of the 2060s.
According to the researchers, the continued spread of invasive mosquitoes and other vectors across Europe requires unpredictable outbreaks and early intervention.
The study suggests that public health agencies need to improve surveillance, for example through early warning systems, raising awareness of the potential risks among healthcare workers and the general public, as well as innovative control strategies such as community interventions. take. "
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