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Musk goes bankrupt at any time: Only the paranoid survive | Blog Post

American rocket tycoon Elon Musk, who threatened to emigrate to Mars, is a bit annoyed recently. Its SpaceX is rumored that it may go bankrupt. The global economic recession has tightened liquidity. The “Starlink” of China’s satellite Internet will also break. This may be the second major crisis in the American science and technology community since the 1990s. Musk made such a self-parody. Do you remember the story of Only the paranoid survived 27 years ago?

SpaceX’s “Falcon 9” with 48 “Starlink” satellites lifted off yesterday. (AP picture)

Yesterday, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket carrying 48 “Starlink” satellites successfully lifted off as usual. This launch is SpaceX’s 27th Falcon 9 mission this year, breaking the 26 set in 2020. The record of this task. However, this is far from happy for Musk, because there are hidden worries in the core part of the rocket. The situation is like Intel (Intel) was confident that when it launched the latest generation of chip Pentium in 1994, it was found technically wrong on the eve of Thanksgiving. Almost triggering the company’s extinction, Intel CEO Andrew Grove worked hard for this (this year he learned of cancer) and summed up the crisis management experience, he said: “Only paranoia survives.” The famous saying, Only the paranoid survive has also become the title of the new book published in 1996.

Musk is in good health, but he has a lot of thoughts. He sent a memo to SpaceX employees on November 30, mentioning that the most important rocket propeller Raptor (Raptor engine) is facing production problems. If this problem is not resolved, SpaceX will face The real bankruptcy crisis.

Musk did not explain the specific problem of the Raptor engine, but online analysis believes that it is a problem in the production of the second-generation Raptor. There may be three aspects: “First, the increase in thrust did not meet expectations; second, the production speed could not keep up. The production hours of each engine exceeded expectations; 3. The engine quality control was poor and the defective rate was high. It is also said that the shortage of chips in the past six months has slowed SpaceX’s expected productivity and affected the ability to complete Starlink orders this year.

In 2022, SpaceX’s “Starship” will have more than a dozen launches. Based on the 35 engines of each “Starship”, at least hundreds of Raptors will be used next year. This pressure is indeed very high. Will SpaceX really go bankrupt because of this? Musk said that the global economy has fallen into a huge recession, and liquidity of funds may be tightened. Because SpaceX has invested heavily in Starship and Starlink, the money spent is amazing. He said: “SpaceX is unlikely to go bankrupt, but it is not. impossible”.

The news immediately caused a global shock, and it was more lethal than Pentium’s “floating point calculation processing function” problem of “an error may only occur once every 9 billion times” at the time. However, Musk said that it is very common for companies to encounter bankruptcies. He cited the examples of General Motors and Christine Group, which were also in trouble during the economic recession of the last financial tsunami in 2008. Finally, he quoted Grove’s famous line: Only paranoia survived.

Grove seems to have left Musk with a tip early in the book. He said in the preface of the book: “If you are running a business, you must realize that no formal plan can anticipate this (strategic turning point) change. …(The fire brigade) has no way to predict where the next fire will be. Therefore, it is necessary to build an energetic and efficient team that can handle unexpected disasters in a timely manner in addition to responding to daily accidents.”

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What is the “strategic turning point”? In short, it is a situation change that is like breaking the ground. For example, the emergence of automobiles has subverted the era of carriage transportation. The “strategic turning point” that Musk encountered is mainly that the epidemic has changed the global economy; the second is that the global technology supply chain is completely uncertain. Who is this to blame? The US flood of water caused high inflation and triggered the global financial crisis. The originally stable supply chain was in chaos due to US sanctions on China. As for the epidemic, don’t blame the virus. The main fault is the US’s improper anti-epidemic strategy.

If so, Musk really wants to be the captain of the American fire department. You will save the fires set by the United States, please.

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