Myanmar’s commander-in-chief Hlaing ‘Self-inauguration’ as prime minister… Military emergency rule extended to at least 2 years and 6 months

The long-term government plan of the Myanmar military, which came to power in a coup d’état in February, began to operate in earnest. Commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing announced that he would assume the post of prime minister and establish a new government. The general election will be held later than promised and the military emergency rule will be extended to at least two years and six months. It is interpreted as the intention of the military to maintain power for a long time while directly operating the government.

Reuters reported on the 1st, citing local state TV in Myanmar, that Commander-in-Chief Hlaing announced that he would assume the post of prime minister from this day. Commander-in-Chief Hlaing plans to replace the military-centered National Administrative Council (SAC) with a transitional government to manage state affairs. After the coup, General Hlaing established the SAC and ascended to the chair of the SAC to rule Myanmar.

Helaing also said, “We will lift the state of emergency and hold a general election by August 2023.” This is a year and a half later than the schedule promised when the military detained state adviser Aung San Suu Kyi in February. With this, the period of emergency rule of the military has been extended from the originally announced one year to at least two years and six months.

Experts in Myanmar are uncertain whether the general election will be held within August 2023 as promised by the military, and even if an election is held, it will be difficult to achieve a fair general election. “The elections were held almost 30 years after the previous coup,” said Chan Lian, director of Hornville Organization, an election watchdog group in Yangon. He refers to the fact that the first general election was held only in 1990, 30 years after General Ne Win’s coup d’état began in 1962 and the military dictatorship began.

Sai Nin Lewin, deputy head of Shan State’s opposition Shan Democratic People’s League (SNLD), said, “After the 1990 general election, no parliament was formed, and when the 2010 general election was held, Major party leaders were in prison. Elections were neither free nor fair.” In the 1990 general election, the NLD led by Suzy, who was under house arrest, won a landslide victory, but the military government did not recognize the election results.

If the 2023 general election is held as predicted, it is highly likely that the situation will be similar to the past. Suzy, who led the NLD, is indicted on more than 10 charges, including bribery, and is likely to receive a decades-long sentence. This means that elections will be held under conditions that are absolutely favorable to the military.

Thousands of civilians have already been killed in the six months since Myanmar’s military coup d’état. Myanmar’s human rights group, the Alliance for Supporting Political Prisoners (AAPP), counted 940 civilians killed by the military and police on the 31st of last month. 5,444 people were detained, and arrest warrants were issued for 1964 people. Human Rights Watch (HRW), an international human rights organization, also said that harsh acts such as torture and sexual assault by the military were being perpetrated. The UN estimates that about 250,000 people have been displaced after Myanmar military clashes with ethnic militants.

There are also testimonies that the military is trying to monopolize hospital facilities and medical equipment such as oxygen tanks at a time when Corona 19 is rapidly spreading. Myanmar’s daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 increased from hundreds in June to 5,000 last month. Medical staff are also participating in the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), and the medical vacuum has worsened. The World Bank predicts that Myanmar’s economy will decline by 18% this year due to the coup d’état and COVID-19.

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Western countries such as the United States tried to resolve the situation through economic sanctions, but the situation did not progress due to opposition from China and Russia, which are permanent members of the UN Security Council. The two countries are effectively putting their hands on the Myanmar situation on the grounds that they should not interfere in internal affairs. The fact that defense companies continue to export weapons to the Myanmar military is also a cause of the prolonged situation.

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Negotiations between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Myanmar military are also stalled. ASEAN held a special summit in April and reached an agreement with the Myanmar military on five points, including immediate cessation of violence and humanitarian aid, but the military has continued to engage in violence against civilians by designating all NUG-related persons as terrorists. A special envoy to Myanmar was also not selected due to differences of opinion between the ASEAN and Myanmar military.

Even under these circumstances, civil resistance to restore democracy has continued. Citizens took to the streets and expressed their intention to fight the dictatorship with a ‘three-finger salute’. Netizens broke through the internet block and communicated the reality of violence to the outside through social media. Some police and military personnel also joined the civil resistance movement. At the end of April, members of the National League for Democracy (NLD), who led the civilian government, launched the NUG, and they are currently planning to establish an alliance with the Karen National Union (KNU), an armed minority group.