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[Negishi S / Dangerous Popular Horse-Part 1]One of the most popular horses is “Erase” What is one “should not buy” in the outpost of February Stakes | SPREAD

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The 36th Negishi S (GIII, Da 1400m) will be held at Tokyo Racecourse on the 30th.Won last year’s Musashino StakesSoloist Thunder, Win the Green Channel C and Shimotsuki S on the same stage in a row and challenge hereHelios, Has achieved solid results in the group racesOmega RainbowEtc. are scheduled to run.

Here, we will read the development from the good running conditions of Negishi S and the assumed members, and will be a hint of the betting ticket “Dangerous popular horseAsSoloist ThunderI want to take up.

◆[Negishi Stakes 2022 / Pedigree tendency]Pedigree composition of single recovery value “289” Expectations for the last leg of that horse of Tokyo expert

■ Musashino Stakes who won the first prize title at the age of 6

First of all, the previous run of Soloist ThunderMusashino STo analyze.

From a decent start, the horse race proceeded in a position near 7th on the way. When the pitch went up from around the 4th corner, he advanced from the outside of the horse group, and the straight line continued to use good legs for a long time aiming at Daiwa Cagney who was in front, and it was a victory that was about 1 horse behind the 2nd place.

From the history of the battle, including the achievements of the regional exchange grade races such as 2nd place in Kashiwa Kinen (JpnI) and 3rd place in Mile Championship Nambu Hai (JpnI) It can be evaluated as a “high prize achievement horse that can be used”. In addition, the Rote record from Musashino Stakes is[3-1-1-4]with a win rate of 33.3%, a consecutive win rate of 44.4%, and a double win rate of 55.6%. It is natural that expectations for a good run will increase this time as well, which will be a continuous ride.

However, in addition to the 1400m race for the first time in about two years (9th place at that time), the soloist Thunder remains a little worried because he cannot use the fast climb in the short run.

■ Trap hidden in Musashino Stakes rap

Next, let’s analyze the good-running horses of the previous run, Musashino Stakes, which have achieved good results.

All of the five horses that were running well in this way had in common that they were defeated at Musashino Stakes. Since 2014, Musashino Stakes, which has been given priority to run for Champions C on the first horse, is positioned as a “Champions C outpost”, so basically Musashino S → Champions C is the mainstream. It has become. After the Musashino Stakes victory, the soloist Thunder camp just said, “I feel a little longer at 1800m, but I’m heading to Champions C after seeing my physical condition.” Probably.

In addition, Negishi S tends to have a “middle pace” with a lap difference of 0 seconds to 1 second in the first half, and Musashino S in the previous race has 2 seconds in the first half such as 4F 46 seconds 5 in the first half and 48 seconds 5 in the second half. It is possible that you have experienced a high pace with a difference in the number of seconds.

In other words, the result of winning the Musashino Stakes tends to be more popular than it is, so it is necessary to determine the content and quality of the race. As mentioned above, in addition to the victory in the high-paced laps such as 4F 46.05 in the first half and 48.05 in the second half in the previous Musashino Stakes, Helios, who has left a result in the middle pace escape this time, entered the race. As it comes, based on the development expected this time, it is expected that even if you freely use the insert leg to catch the front, it will be inserted by the following horse and even the bulletin board.

■ What is needed for a good run is sharpness and momentum

Next, we analyze the good running pattern of Negishi S.

・3F 1st place[5-2-2-2]45.5% win rate, 63.6% streak rate, 81.8% return rate
・3F 2nd place[3-1-3-3]30.0% win rate, 40.0% streak rate, 70.0% return rate
・3F 3rd place[2-1-1-6]20.0% win rate, 30.0% streak rate, 40.0% return rate
・3F ~ 5th place[0-4-3-15]0.0% win rate, 18.2% streak rate, 31.8% return rate
・3F 6th place[0-2-1-99]20.0% win rate, 2.0% streak rate, 2.9% return rate

In this way, the “fastest horse to climb” has won the most 5 wins, and last year Wonder Riedel (10 popular) rose to 2nd place with the fastest last leg, and in 2020 Smart Avalon (9 popular) rose to the fastest. He has been running well in the betting ticket for the fifth consecutive year, with his last leg coming out in 3rd place and Copano Kicking (2 popular) rising in 19 and winning with the fastest last leg.

On the other hand, Soloist Thunder has never risen since last year and has not been able to mark the fastest end leg, and the result is that he is up to 2nd place on the high-ranking front. Even at the Mile Championship Nambu Hai and Kashiwa Kinen, he didn’t show any noticeable legs, and because he is a solid type, he may lose his order more than popular.

Also, the fact that Daisuke Takayanagi stables, who won the Champions C at T O Keynes last year and marked 27 wins a year, which is a career high, has not been able to make a start dash with only 2 wins this term is likely to be a cause for concern for soloist Thunder. Considering the delicacy of betting tickets from the above uncertainties, Soloist Thunder is evaluated as “erased”.

In “Part 2”, I will introduce the favorite to replace Soloist Thunder, and the conclusion including 4 Anomas.

◆[Negishi Stakes 2022 Forecast / Dangerous Popular Horses-Part 2]A favorite for old horses who have more “achievements” than popular horses.

◆[Negishi Stakes 2022 / Leg Quality Tendency]Escape is within the betting ticket area “0” anxiety data Attention is the “fastest climb” that boasts an overwhelming winning percentage

◆[Negishi Stakes 2022 / Previous Rote]A tailwind for Soloist Thunder What are the “two common points” that correspond to a good-running horse?

Sentence, Kouki Nishitate (SPREAD editorial department)

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